January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

Happy New Year! Days are getting longer and we're now in the Winter season. How many blizzards and snowstorms will we get this month, f any? We'll see!

[wetcoast91]

Still think we see something late Jan and Feb...

[wetcoast91]

The climate could care less about any SSW

Back to the default mild and splitty pattern we go...

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles look pretty wet.

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... 3591462912

[wetcoast91]

I usually joke about winter cancel and forks but this is downright ugly in the middle of the winter. Coast to coast blow torch with cold air locked into Russia. Alaska and the poles warm up. Would write off most of Jan and potentially early Feb. You usually need to see a cold Alaska or Yukon to have any hope...

[Bonovox]

I usually joke about winter cancel and forks but this is downright ugly in the middle of the winter. Coast to coast blow torch with cold air locked into Russia. Alaska and the poles warm up. Would write off most of Jan and potentially early Feb. You usually need to see a cold Alaska or Yukon to have any hope...

Too much model noise right now. There will be a pattern flip and it won't come with too much lead time. Relax.

[AbbyJr]

I usually joke about winter cancel and forks but this is downright ugly in the middle of the winter. Coast to coast blow torch with cold air locked into Russia. Alaska and the poles warm up. Would write off most of Jan and potentially early Feb. You usually need to see a cold Alaska or Yukon to have any hope...

I'm not worried yet. SSW still in progress. Pattern doesn't usually flip until 2-3 weeks after the warming event completes.

[AbbyJr]

Too much model noise right now. There will be a pattern flip and it won't come with too much lead time. Relax.

Agreed. Michael Ventrice discussed this in his presentation. Did you see the video I posted last night?

[Bonovox]

Agreed. Michael Ventrice discussed this in his presentation. Did you see the video I posted last night?

I watched the bits relevant to the PNW. It was quite informative.

[Pumpkin Seed]

I usually joke about winter cancel and forks but this is downright ugly in the middle of the winter. Coast to coast blow torch with cold air locked into Russia. Alaska and the poles warm up. Would write off most of Jan and potentially early Feb. You usually need to see a cold Alaska or Yukon to have any hope...

This sounds very bad. So basically this winter is done I guess. Even if any snow makes its way to the lower mainland by or after mid Feb, my mood is not there anymore as March belongs to spring and sunny warm weather.

[Bonovox]

This sounds very bad. So basically this winter is done I guess. Even if any snow makes its way to the lower mainland by or after mid Feb, my mood is not there anymore as March belongs to spring and sunny warm weather.

Don't buy into the Nito propaganda just yet.

[wetcoast91]

Don't buy into the Nito propaganda just yet.

We are seeing continued warming in the NH. The SSW has displaced all the cold air into the British Isles and Siberia . Ideally need to have a cold AK/Yukon as a precursor to anything signficient...

Could we see cold? Sure. Is it likely to happen in the next 3 weeks. Models seem to suggest no.

[Bonovox]

We are seeing signficient warming in the NH. The SSW has displaced all the cold air into the British Isles and Siberia . Ideally need to have a cold AK/Yukon as a precursor to anything signficient.

The SSW is still underway and hasn't completed yet. You may be right, but are as equally likely to be wrong. As most leading SSW experts have stated, the ensembles are useless beyond 7 days until they get a handle on the SSW. This likely will not be until next week. So, we wait.

[AbbyJr]

We are seeing continued warming in the NH. The SSW has displaced all the cold air into the British Isles and Siberia . Ideally need to have a cold AK/Yukon as a precursor to anything signficient...

Could we see cold? Sure. Is it likely to happen in the next 3 weeks. Models seem to suggest no.

There is no way to know the final outcome of the SSW this early. What we are seeing right now is totally consistent with what we would expect to see until 2-3 weeks after the SSW completes.