October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Temp 0˚C, DP -2˚C. A freeze without a frost to pair with Friday’s frost without a freeze.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

First freeze of the season here. Hit 0.0c just at sunrise.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Antares »

Reached -8.8C this morning here and up to a scorching +3.4C now. :sweat:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

:think: :think: :think:
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6977600.png
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Central Abbotsford
50m (164ft)

2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

:team: :snowwindow: :snowman:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:21 pm :think: :think: :think:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6977600.png
Low snow levels, definitely not Arctic though, yet.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

I recently compiled snowfall totals for almost every station across the Lower Mainland for the January 1971 snowstorm. Keep in mind, most of these observations are from the old volunteer stations at EC, hence the difference in totals over small areas could be exaggerated due to measuring errors.

Overall, this snowstorm was one of the most significant in recorded history for many areas of Metro Vancouver. I attribute the generally lower totals in S and E Metro Vancouver (Surrey/Maple Ridge) and the Fraser Valley to the track of precip bands and strength of outflow. Temperatures in the valley were also much colder than areas to the west (ex. Sumas Prairie had a high of -11.7c on Jan 11th compared with -3.9c at YVR).
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (1).PNG
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (2).PNG
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (3).PNG
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Weather101 »

We are definitely now in the realm of possibilities of getting snow. Always fun when you get to this time of the season. Clown range has a bit more hope.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Weather101 wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 6:52 pm We are definitely now in the realm of possibilities of getting snow. Always fun when you get to this time of the season. Clown range has a bit more hope.
There will be an impactful snow event in late November or early December. I know this because that is when I am planning to move a chunk of my stuff. You’re welcome. :think: :problem:
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Weather101 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:01 pm There will be an impactful snow event in late November or early December. I know this because that is when I am planning to move a chunk of my stuff. You’re welcome. :think: :problem:
I saw your earlier post, I run a moving company and I wish I would be able to help you with the cross border moving but with the Covid restrictions it’s difficult. When are you exactly moving ? Shoot me a private message
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 7:01 pm There will be an impactful snow event in late November or early December. I know this because that is when I am planning to move a chunk of my stuff. You’re welcome. :think: :problem:
Similar timeframe as some of the analogues (1970-71, 1975-76, 2007-08, 2010-11, 2011-12)...:think:
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" in his winter forecast update maintains 1971/72, 1996/97, and 2008/09 as the best analogs for this upcoming winter. Would certainly be epic if it verified. :thumbup: :D

Here is his updated winter forecast video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HQn-rEmE_M
Last edited by AbbyJr on Mon Nov 01, 2021 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 9:47 pm Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" in his winter forecast update maintains 1970/71, 1996/97, and 2008/09 as the best analogs for this upcoming winter. Would certainly be epic if it verified. :thumbup: :D

Here is his updated winter forecast video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HQn-rEmE_M
Ok..that's insane. I think he could be one of those meteorologists who let's his own weather preferences slightly cloud his judgement. I do hope he's right of course.
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Snow maps starting Nov. 1st Jr. man. :clap: :thumbup:
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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Re: October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sun Oct 31, 2021 4:35 pm I recently compiled snowfall totals for almost every station across the Lower Mainland for the January 1971 snowstorm. Keep in mind, most of these observations are from the old volunteer stations at EC, hence the difference in totals over small areas could be exaggerated due to measuring errors.

Overall, this snowstorm was one of the most significant in recorded history for many areas of Metro Vancouver. I attribute the generally lower totals in S and E Metro Vancouver (Surrey/Maple Ridge) and the Fraser Valley to the track of precip bands and strength of outflow. Temperatures in the valley were also much colder than areas to the west (ex. Sumas Prairie had a high of -11.7c on Jan 11th compared with -3.9c at YVR).

January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (1).PNG
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (2).PNG
January 1971 Snowstorm Totals Lower Mainland (3).PNG
Awesome Tman. :thumbup:
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm
CYCW station
https://cycw.awos.live/local-weather
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