November 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Non event here today. I've had stronger winds without a wind warning.

We generally see our biggest windstorms when the low pressure center crosses the coast directly to our north. These situations generally bring the strongest pressure gradients and the most widespread damaging winds as the wind surges towards the low from the S, SW and eventually W as the low moves off to the east. There are exceptions for localized areas with these SE wind events, and we occasionally will see strong surges of wind (sometimes damaging) from a strong cold front with a steep pressure rise behind it. But, I can’t think of many big windstorms where the low pressure center doesn’t make landfall on the coast, generally somewhere on Vancouver island.

[John]

I am sure many people feel this way. Hopefully TWN give him a job.

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 45472?s=19

Anyone know why he’s gone?? This is an enormous loss!

[Storm]

Anyone know why he’s gone?? This is an enormous loss!

Job cuts. An other guy was let go in the industry.
https://twitter.com/BruceClaggett/statu ... 70629?s=19

[hawk2]

Fairly zonal and wet next several days..not bad..not great..is this normal for NinaNovembers?

[Weather101]

Fairly zonal and wet next several days..not bad..not great..is this normal for NinaNovembers?

Typical Nina nothing to worry about.

[Michael1]

Fairly zonal and wet next several days..not bad..not great..is this normal for NinaNovembers?

It can be; fall 1988 was very wet in November, the cold air didn't start until around Christmas, and even then it was not very cold and sporadic. It wasn't until the very end of January the at we got the deep freeze. This is from a Victoria stand point; other places may have had different conditions.
Having said that, I think our geography makes it difficult to determine anything when comparing LA Nina winters.

[Glacier]

Did he maybe quit ? Or maybe a money issue ? He's amazing so this is weird.

My guess is money. My dad worked as a journalist for decades, and we let go 10 years ago because he was too expensive (he was just over the age of 60). They brought in a young person to replace him who knew nothing about the area and had no connections you need for digging up good news stories. And they wonder why fewer and fewer people tune into mainstream media.

[wetcoast91]

Fairly zonal and wet next several days..not bad..not great..is this normal for NinaNovembers?

Ignoring La Nina. This is looking similar to the following years: Nov 2008, 2011, 2016

However similar ENSO values to 98/99, 07/08, 10/11.

Leaning towards 98/99. Similar progression with the PV. Atmospheric conditions appear to be following same progression as well. That winter featured a dry October, very wet November and had a decent cold snap near Christmas. Jan and Feb never got cold though. Mountains did superbly well.

Strong -ENSO tends to do the lowlands no favours.

[Weather101]

My guess is money. My dad worked as a journalist for decades, and we let go 10 years ago because he was too expensive (he was just over the age of 60). They brought in a young person to replace him who knew nothing about the area and had no connections you need for digging up good news stories. And they wonder why fewer and fewer people tune into mainstream media.

This sums it up and mainstream media now is trash if I'm being honest. I won't even get into how CNN and all these big mainstream media has deteriorated or became so biased and doesn't even report news but that's another story.

[Weather101]

Ignoring La Nina. This is looking similar to the following years: Nov 2008, 2011, 2016

However similar ENSO values to 98/99, 07/08, 10/11.

Leaning towards 98/99. Similar progression with the PV. Atmospheric conditions appear to be following same progression as well. That winter featured a dry October, very wet November and had a decent cold snap near Christmas. Jan and Feb never got cold though. Mountains did superbly well.

Strong -ENSO tends to do the lowlands no favours.

So my gut feeling of a winter that may not be as good as everyone thinks could possibly come true unfortunately. I'm not sure why but just had this feeling since September that is winter isn't going to be as amazing or hyped as people assume.

[PortKells]

So my gut feeling of a winter that may not be as good as everyone thinks could possibly come true unfortunately. I'm not sure why but just had this feeling since September that is winter isn't going to be as amazing or hyped as people assume.

It’s just a matter of odds. Our odds are higher than most years but overall still pretty terrible. It’s the Pacific Northwest in 2020. We should always approach hyping up winters with caution.

[Typeing3]

Ignoring La Nina. This is looking similar to the following years: Nov 2008, 2011, 2016

However similar ENSO values to 98/99, 07/08, 10/11.

Leaning towards 98/99. Similar progression with the PV. Atmospheric conditions appear to be following same progression as well. That winter featured a dry October, very wet November and had a decent cold snap near Christmas. Jan and Feb never got cold though. Mountains did superbly well.

Strong -ENSO tends to do the lowlands no favours.

What do you think of '42-43, '61/62, '75-76 or '88-89 as additional analogues?

Fairly similar overall November patterns to what we've had thus far and I've also seen those seasons floated around on a couple other forums.

[wetcoast91]

So my gut feeling of a winter that may not be as good as everyone thinks could possibly come true unfortunately. I'm not sure why but just had this feeling since September that is winter isn't going to be as amazing or hyped as people assume.

From a climatological standpoint..it is very concerning to see a total absense of extreme cold in the poles right now. Sea ice coverage is at a record low. Long range models appear to depict colder values up near Hudson Bay and Nunavut in the 15-20 day range but temps are running 10-15C above normal near the poles.

I sound like an alarmist but the facts speak for themselves.

What do you think of '42-43, '61/62, '75-76 or '88-89 as additional analogues?

Fairly similar overall November patterns to what we've had thus far and I've also seen those seasons floated around on a couple other forums.

I tend to think one shouldn't go back that far as we are in a totally different climate. UHI indexes are more expansive but global climate shifts should be taken into account.

[Typeing3]

Hints of W/SW flow into late month and early Dec on the 12z GFS ensembles. Warmer/wetter.

[tyweather]

From a climatological standpoint..it is very concerning to see a total absense of extreme cold in the poles right now. Sea ice coverage is at a record low. Long range models appear to depict colder values up near Hudson Bay and Nunavut in the 15-20 day range but temps are running 10-15C above normal near the poles.

I sound like an alarmist but the facts speak for themselves.



I tend to think one shouldn't go back that far as we are in a totally different climate. UHI indexes are more expansive but global climate shifts should be taken into account.

I agree. We can all dream about the past climate comparisons but the older ones are not comparable. The arctic isn't as frozen as it used to be. There is less sea ice and the permafrost is melting. If there isn't a source of cold air then any cold air outbreaks will be much more moderate, at least in general. The climate has warmed too much. Vast areas of the arctic is averaging +5c above historical normal. The most extreme cold weather that we have seen in the last 3 decades has months that barely average below 0c. Unlike in the 1890-1970 period which saw colder than -2 or -3 pretty common at least once or twice a decade. (Aggassiz station)