December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 8:54 am Zero winter so far...maybe it gets cold and snowy this year in March :shock: :shock:
#Marchintowinter :think:
:lol:

Cold rain with maybe a little bit of slush mixed in is more like it.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Maybe a little wet snow on Thursday before it changes to rain? Low dew points and quite chilly at precip onset.

I will note that only NAM and GFS show it, but the NAM has been quite accurate in the short-term for lowland snow chances in the last few years.
nam-nest-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-5858800.png
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nam-nest-vancouverski-dew2m_c-5851600.png
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Last edited by Rubus_Leucodermis on Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:12 am :lol:

Cold rain with maybe a little bit of slush mixed in is more like it.
We have had MANY snowy Marches before..better than a ZERO winter..which is where we are at so far..with no end in sight for the next 10 days+ :bs:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:19 am Maybe a little wet snow on Thursday before it changes to rain? Low dew points and quite chilly at precip onset.

nam-nest-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-5858800.png
nam-nest-vancouverski-t2m_c-5858800.png
nam-nest-vancouverski-dew2m_c-5851600.png
Wouldnt it be sad if this was our monumental Cold/Snow event of the winter? :shock:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:22 am We have had MANY snowy Marches before..better than a ZERO winter..which is where we are at so far..with no end in sight for the next 10 days+ :bs:
That’s before I showed up to scare it away.

Florence, Oregon has better chances of seeing sticking snow this March than does East Van.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Hawk wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:25 am Wouldnt it be sad if this was our monumental Cold/Snow event of the winter? :shock:
I doubt it will be.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 10:33 am Every single model run today continue to show that semi-permanent Aleutian low 16 days out....Not one GEFS ensemble member showed any potential change.

Snow_wizard: "Good things are coming."

:lol:
Until we loose that AL, we are stuck in this stupid #patternlock and the East gets all the winter weather.

:thumbdown:

Still hopeful that the pattern shakes up a bit as we get later into Jan.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

starting next Monday, at least one model shows an anchored High, with ~567 dam for us for the rest of the entire run..9 days!!
:cancel: :flakey: :flakey:

#Marchitis :thumbup: :thumbup:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 8:27 am Skipper Gimpyballs and The Sardinies old retired farts snowfall contest for the 2024/2025 season has been canceled due to what else a poor performance of accumulating snowflakes. ❄️ 😢 :x :lol:
0cm @ your home for New Years eve the pond in south Sardis, l haven't even seen a splat. :( oh and it's currently plus 1c it doesn't even go below 0c this winter what a joke.
Hasn't hit freezing in Mission this month either, at least not officially. I got down to +0.1C, so maybe someone hit freezing?

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... imeframe=2

Last December was warm as well, but at least we got below 0C a couple of times.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

:14clown: FS has some cooler air moving West as we head towards the end of JAN, similar to the Euro Weeklies and Extended GEFS.

3 extended longer range models with a similar idea.

Could mean something.. could mean nothing. :shrug:
cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2024123106_121.png
cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2024123106_141.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Weeklies just came out.

More or less going with the same idea of things cooling down as we get later into Jan and into #FEB.

Extended GEFS, Extended EPS and :14clown: FS weeklies all going with the similar idea as of now.

Perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel?

Or perhaps things just keep getting pushed down the road.

:shrug:
20-25.png
25-30.png
30-35.png
35-40.png
40-45.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Catnip wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 12:53 pm Weeklies just came out.

More or less going with the same idea of things cooling down as we get later into Jan and into #FEB.

Extended GEFS, Extended EPS and :14clown: FS weeklies all going with the similar idea as of now.

Perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel?

Or perhaps things just keep getting pushed down the road.

:shrug:

20-25.png
25-30.png
30-35.png
35-40.png
40-45.png
It’ll come. It likely lasts only 5 days but who knows.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Its really simple, yet hardly achieved. We need persistent WC troffing starting around Dec 15 every year..and #patternlock that up for the usual ~2 months, for many, many victories during the best part of winter to score snow :thumbup: :thumbup:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
#patternlock
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 11:11 am Nothing more than a slushy cm IMBY.
March snow is pretty common here. I'm sure your curse will be broken soon.
:typing: :type3:
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Dec 31, 2024 2:24 pm March snow is pretty common here. I'm sure your curse will be broken soon.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Until then, I will invoke weenie mode at the mere mention of it.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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