August 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Bonovox]

Outlier!

I think you can deal with a weekend of rain. You get your heat right afterwards.

[SouthSardiswx]

That’s bullshit we need it!

family site John.

[SouthSardiswx]

Well, this was a pleasant surprise.

John will be pleased for a day until it collapses again. is this like searching the models for snow in winter.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

[Typeing3]

More stats updated today:
https://mobile.twitter.com/YVR__Weather ... 0953680901
https://mobile.twitter.com/YVR__Weather ... 8916107264

[Antares]

25.5C and a bit smoky (but not too bad) here in Cranbrook.

Had some heavy rain yesterday.

[PortKells]

John will be pleased for a day until it collapses again. is this like searching the models for snow in winter.

It really is and its annoying. That euro run pretty much came out of nowhere. I wish i had kept my weatherbell subscription. Can anybody with wxbell say if that run is supported by ensembles or just another annoying outlier?

[AbbyJr]

I hope those rains really slow down those fires in the interior, because this is what awaits us afterwards.

Would that bring an offshore flow? I don't see a thermal trough and for some reason I've always thought you need one for outflow in the summer.

[wetcoast91]

Would that bring an offshore flow? I don't see a thermal trough and for some reason I've always thought you need one for outflow in the summer.

I see potential for a massive omega block in the 6-10 day range. Trough gets pinched and rapidly ejected. This could result in extreme heat for our fish friends or for us if that ridge trends over us, with highs near or above 40C.

[Bonovox]

It really is and its annoying. That euro run pretty much came out of nowhere. I wish i had kept my weatherbell subscription. Can anybody with wxbell say if that run is supported by ensembles or just another annoying outlier?

Decent ensemble support for the “wet” weekend.

[Bonovox]

Would that bring an offshore flow? I don't see a thermal trough and for some reason I've always thought you need one for outflow in the summer.

You don’t necessarily need a thermal trough to produce offshore flow. The 500mb flow is out of the North and if you look at the 850mb winds, they are out of the NE. The ridge axis to our west doesn’t help.

[Typeing3]

Decent ensemble support for the “wet” weekend.

Definitely wetter than the GFS. Exact amounts depend on location but it looks like 5-20mm across the lower mainland on that map.

[Glacier]

Some people think that Penticton has hot summers. This is a complete and utter myth. In fact, places with more heat warnings in the summer include:

Happy Valley - Goose Bay, NL
Thompson, MB
Fort Liard, NWT
Regina, SK
Calgary, AB
Inuvik, NWT

Abbotsford also very cold. Cities hotter than Abbotsford (or at least have more heat warning days) include:

Vancouver
St. John's
Yellowknife
Churchill
Watson Lake, YT
Edmonton

Source: https://questioningthedata.wordpress.co ... -okanagan/

[PortKells]

I see potential for a massive omega block in the 6-10 day range. Trough gets pinched and rapidly ejected. This could result in extreme heat for our fish friends or for us if that ridge trends over us, with highs near or above 40C.

Nice, then it will be a "twice in a lifetime" event.

[Glacier]

Talk about a forecast FAIL! Temperatures were way above forecast by 3 pm. I screenshotted then because the 4pm temperatures don't show the forecast. The temperature is even hotter now!

forecastfail.png

VernonforecastFail.png