December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[PortKells]

Ridge trying to make a move?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6856000.png

[Typeing3]

12z GFS > 12z GEM

[Typeing3]

Source: https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627

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[wetcoast91]

Source: https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627


Gf-zQ4pWAAASj0l.png
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Jan 2016! This +PNA pattern could be with us through mid Feb.

Ridge trying to make a move?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6856000.png

Many long range forecasts simply flatten the ridge leading to a chilly zonal flow.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-12-29.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-12-29T.png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-12-29T1.png

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[Hawk]

18z GFS just crushes the hopes. Back half of the run is bone dry..not a flake in the Similkameens for over a week. Brutal. Snowpack and lakes are already hurting bad enough right now wow..was really hoping for a big snowpack this winter to re fill the lakes.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS just crushes the hopes. Back half of the run is bone dry..not a flake in the Similkameens for over a week. Brutal. Snowpack and lakes are already hurting bad enough right now wow..was really hoping for a big snowpack this winter to re fill the lakes.

Small victories! A strong ridge overhead and dry is preferable over a weaker ridge and stronger eastern-based Aleutian Low which would result in multiple AR events with mild rains that wipe out the snowpack.

[Catnip]

18z GFS just crushes the hopes. Back half of the run is bone dry..not a flake in the Similkameens for over a week. Brutal. Snowpack and lakes are already hurting bad enough right now wow..was really hoping for a big snowpack this winter to re fill the lakes.

Don't think we will see anything interesting show up until later in Jan. Longer range ensembles do show some hope for the latter part of the month.

Who knows though.

[SouthSardiswx]

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2024-12-29.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2024-12-29T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2024-12-29T1.png




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20241229231639-26d23d28d38b2c539908555cef20da8ca5ad4668.png

Wow shorts in January weather tropical look crazy.

[SouthSardiswx]

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[SouthSardiswx]

Source: https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627


Gf-zQ4pWAAASj0l.png
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East is due l'm not surprised or jealous. really.

[Monty]

The snow event in late month was definitely memorable for the wrong reasons here. Two days of constant light snow which refused to accumulate more than 5cm. Never seen anything like it. Finally on the third day we received some decent accumulations.

We had close to 50 cm with the late month stuff in 2014 but it was quite wet. I seem to remember the max depth topping out around 35cm. I also think we had another close call in early March that resulted in a late season freezing rain event in the eastern suburbs and Fraser valley

[Monty]

It’s coming

IMG_9075.png

[Monty]

The thaw was beginning around now in 1996. Victoria looked more like Buffalo NY

[SouthSardiswx]

Jr. Man if you see this l sent you a PM.