October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Thanks! May 5, 2021

Our first is a cinco de mayo baby. Easy birthday party theme.

[Michael1]

Our first is a cinco de mayo baby. Easy birthday party theme.

Hey, that's a good date-my birthday too!!

[Typeing3]

Good one. Another favorite weather aphorism of mine is: It is never too late for a rug pull.

January 2011.

[PortKells]

“Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).“

[Typeing3]

“Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).“

Huh?

[AbbyJr]

“Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).“

I'm going to need my masters in atmospheric science in order to understand what Phil says. Even at that I wonder if I'd still be clueless.

[AbbyJr]

Huh?

It's a quote from Phil on the American forums.

[stuffradio]

“Subsidence associated w/ MJO component of GWO projected to propagate eastward into the E-IO/IPWP over the next few weeks, which destructively interferes with EHEM component of canonical -ENSO cell but will thereafter constructively interfere with the low pass subsidence regime over the dateline/WPAC.

There’s your inevitable EAMT (and transition into, then out of, +NPO).“

The NPO stands for North Pacific Oscillation. GWO is Global Wind Oscillation. WPAC is West Pacific. EHEM = Eastern Hemisphere. EAMT = East Asia Mountain Torque.

I assume E-IO might be Eastern Indian Ocean?

Indo-Pacific warm pool = IPWP

[Typeing3]

The NPO stands for North Pacific Oscillation. GWO is Global Wind Oscillation. WPAC is West Pacific. EHEM = Eastern Hemisphere. EAMT = East Asia Mountain Torque.

I assume E-IO might be Eastern Indian Ocean?

Indo-Pacific warm pool = IPWP

I understood most of the acronyms too but the way he writes his posts can sometimes be confusing and hard to follow.

[Storm]

I understood most of the acronyms too but the way he writes his posts can sometimes be confusing and hard to follow.

A bunch of Phil's BS.

[Monty]

I understood most of the acronyms too but the way he writes his posts can sometimes be confusing and hard to follow.

He likes it that way. Then when he’s wrong nobody really knows what he was saying anyway. He has been continually calling for a zonal November with things flipping more meridional late month or early December. We will see but I too am a little surprised at how the models look during week 2 currently.

[stuffradio]

Wow,
talk about 12Z eye candy...

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I'm going to need my masters in atmospheric science in order to understand what Phil says. Even at that I wonder if I'd still be clueless.

Most people I’ve run across with atmospheric science degrees are far better at explaining what’s going on with the weather in terms understandable to the interested layman than Phil is. Take Cliff Mass, for instance. I have my criticisms of the guy, but when he explains something about the local weather in Seattle, it’s not an incomprehensible bowl of acronym soup. You can actually understand the points he’s trying to convey.

I cannot think of any purpose of making posts like Phil does, in the forums that he does, other than one of attempting to show off. (Why else post something that almost none of an audience can understand?) It’s just a hunch on my part, but I rather suspect that most holders of atmospheric science degrees would call bullsh*t on much of what Phil claims.

[Glacier]

The amount of precipitation this month is amazing. Wettest October on record in Williams Lake with more to come. And of course, the amount of snow on the ground in the interior is record breaking for October, from Kamloops to Penticton to many others.

[Bonovox]

He likes it that way. Then when he’s wrong nobody really knows what he was saying anyway.

Bingo. That’s exactly what he tries to do.