December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:15 pm :o

gfs_z500a_namer_54.png
gfs_T850_eus_57.png
gfs_T2m_eus_56.png
2015-2016 winter delivered 2 impressive cold outbreaks to Florida. Mixed precip was observed near Disneyworld and Jacksonville saw trace accumulations.

Looking like we may see a similar pattern next month. It is rather perplexing to see an almost 8 week super El Nino-like pattern in an ENSO neutral state. We haven't been able to shake free from this since mid November and it looks to continue through late Jan.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Flakey »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:46 pm And we got sloppy seconds the last week of February 2014 Tmild. :sick: talking about January 1982 again we also got more snow/cold around the 20th l remember in Port Moody it was around -3c during the day and YVR was plus 1c or so. The Arctic fart pushed out to the eastern burbs of Vancouver l'm not sure if it pushed much farther west interesting set up l recall perhaps check YVR temps around that date. :thumbup:
According to the info i downloaded it shows temps hovering between 1.5 and -2.5 on the 21st and 22nd with 11cm on the 21st and 18cm on the 22nd for Green Timbers.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:34 pm Dry backdoor blast for us in early Feb 2014. Huge snows in Oregon.
Forgot about Feb 2014. Thanks for the reminder. :thumbup:

In terms of snow, the backdoor blast later in the month was really good for the higher elevation suburbs of Metro Vancouver. :wave: :flakey:
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:46 pm And we got sloppy seconds the last week of February 2014 Tmild. :sick: talking about January 1982 again we also got more snow/cold around the 20th l remember in Port Moody it was around -3c during the day and YVR was plus 1c or so. The Arctic fart pushed out to the eastern burbs of Vancouver l'm not sure if it pushed much farther west interesting set up l recall perhaps check YVR temps around that date. :thumbup:
Yep, snowstorm in late January 1982 on the 20th-21st-22nd.

Kind of a classic setup which is less common nowadays -- cool NW flow for a few days with a some showers and wet snow before a system dropped down the coast (eventually slid down into California) which help drag down a bit of modified arctic air into the region before a new low formed right along the arctic boundary and stalled right off the coast of the island for a day. End result was two days of steady snows with temps just a touch below freezing right at the coast. Colder further inland in the valley. Another stronger low approached from the NW out of the Gulf of Alaska which led to more snow in the overrunning setup before temps rose with heavy rains.

Jan 19th:
1982011918.gif

Jan 20th:
1982012018.gif

Jan 21st:
1982012118.gif

Jan 22nd:
1982012218.gif
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:54 pm 2015-2016 winter delivered 2 impressive cold outbreaks to Florida. Mixed precip was observed near Disneyworld and Jacksonville saw trace accumulations.

Looking like we may see a similar pattern next month. It is rather perplexing to see an almost 8 week super El Nino-like pattern in an ENSO neutral state. We haven't been able to shake free from this since mid November and it looks to continue through late Jan.
I recall the Mid-Atlantic region (including Washington, DC) had a historic blizzard in January 2016 as well.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:15 pm Forgot about Feb 2014. Thanks for the reminder. :thumbup:

In terms of snow, the backdoor blast later in the month was really good for the higher elevation suburbs of Metro Vancouver. :wave: :flakey:
The snow event in late month was definitely memorable for the wrong reasons here. Two days of constant light snow which refused to accumulate more than 5cm. Never seen anything like it. Finally on the third day we received some decent accumulations.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:48 pm The snow event in late month was definitely memorable for the wrong reasons here. Two days of constant light snow which refused to accumulate more than 5cm. Never seen anything like it. Finally on the third day we received some decent accumulations.
Same in Abbotsford, although I had decent accumulations on my grass. But given the fact that there was several hours of heavy snow two days in a row, I would have expected a much higher snow depth. Unfortunately, there wasn't quite enough surface cold. Close to being epic but not close enough. If I recall correctly, Westwood Plateau scored big time with that event. Picture perfect setup for the higher elevations near the mountains.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:08 pm Same in Abbotsford, although I had decent accumulations on my grass. But given the fact that there was several hours of heavy snow two days in a row, I would have expected a much higher snow depth. Unfortunately, there wasn't quite enough surface cold. Close to being epic but not close enough. If I recall correctly, Westwood Plateau scored big time with that event. Picture perfect setup for the higher elevations near the mountains.
Your typical higher sun angles warmer ground contributing to the melting snow ❄️ Jr. Man. :x
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:44 pm Yep, snowstorm in late January 1982 on the 20th-21st-22nd.

Kind of a classic setup which is less common nowadays -- cool NW flow for a few days with a some showers and wet snow before a system dropped down the coast (eventually slid down into California) which help drag down a bit of modified arctic air into the region before a new low formed right along the arctic boundary and stalled right off the coast of the island for a day. End result was two days of steady snows with temps just a touch below freezing right at the coast. Colder further inland in the valley. Another stronger low approached from the NW out of the Gulf of Alaska which led to more snow in the overrunning setup before temps rose with heavy rains.

Jan 19th:
1982011918.gif


Jan 20th:
1982012018.gif


Jan 21st:
1982012118.gif


Jan 22nd:
1982012218.gif
Wow thanks for the prehistoric maps Tsaurus we certainly don't see this set up now in our mediterranean climate now. :lol:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Flakey wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 9:15 pm According to the info i downloaded it shows temps hovering between 1.5 and -2.5 on the 21st and 22nd with 11cm on the 21st and 18cm on the 22nd for Green Timbers.
Nice yes we had about 10cm perhaps 12cm in upper Mission l recall Flakes, by the Sunday evening.
I remember we were excited about the next weekend possibilities as another shot of Arctic fart for March 1st was on tap.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:08 pm Same in Abbotsford, although I had decent accumulations on my grass. But given the fact that there was several hours of heavy snow two days in a row, I would have expected a much higher snow depth. Unfortunately, there wasn't quite enough surface cold. Close to being epic but not close enough. If I recall correctly, Westwood Plateau scored big time with that event. Picture perfect setup for the higher elevations near the mountains.
Upper Westwood Plateau had 50-70cm by the end of the event.

They are almost always the big winners across the region. There was a freak snowfall in mid March 2019 that dropped an incredible 40-60cm on upper Westwood Plateau in just one day while the rest of the region saw less than 10cm.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Food for thought Tpuck, didn’t the Knuckles collapse today against the Kracken remind you of that January 8th 2011 collapse by the models. :lol:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Mattman »

Snowshoed at Big White with a boyhood friend. Beautiful snowpack in the Graystokes.
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

wetcoast91 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 8:54 pm 2015-2016 winter delivered 2 impressive cold outbreaks to Florida. Mixed precip was observed near Disneyworld and Jacksonville saw trace accumulations.

Looking like we may see a similar pattern next month. It is rather perplexing to see an almost 8 week super El Nino-like pattern in an ENSO neutral state. We haven't been able to shake free from this since mid November and it looks to continue through late Jan.
Yup..8 weeks of snowy window time sadness Nito. Its ok.. like the Canucks..there's always next year. Yessss :clap:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Typeing3 wrote: Sat Dec 28, 2024 11:47 pm Upper Westwood Plateau had 50-70cm by the end of the event.

They are almost always the big winners across the region. There was a freak snowfall in mid March 2019 that dropped an incredible 40-60cm on upper Westwood Plateau in just one day while the rest of the region saw less than 10cm.
It definitely pays to make a conscious decision about where you are going to live. There are many great snow locations in the Lower Mainland, each somewhat unique. Catnip Hill is the big winner every time so that's like the constant..score after score omg..crazy amounts :hearteyes:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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