December 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

I just don't compare now to last century. Especially pre-1970s. That was a different climate ago. My prediction is this event will be looked back on as top tier compared with the next few winters.

My reasoning is that good winters come and go in bunches and we've had a bunch of good ones. Now we are heading towards el nino like in 2009/2010 which preceded a crap stretch. With climate warming, El Nino looming and being due for a 99-2005 like or 2010-2016 like stretch. we may not see a pair of winters like 21/22 in a good while.

I desperately hope I'm wrong but my point is enjoy it when you have it.

Hopefully I'm wrong and this

While 2009/2010 was a bad winter, I always remind myself that 1968/69 was a moderate El Niño and we all know how well it performed despite being one of the worst base states for cold and snow here. Further, 2020/21 was a La Niña/+QBO, the most ideal base states and yet apart from a brief dry cold period in February, which was mostly Sudden Stratospheric Warming induced, it was a busted winter. So there's never any guarantees. All we can do is hope the next El Niño performs because that's likely where we are headed for summer and next winter. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the next few winters end up El Niño. All we can do is hope.

[PortKells]

While 2009/2010 was a bad winter, I always remind myself that 1968/69 was a moderate El Niño and we all know how well it performed despite being one of the worst base states for cold and snow here. Further, 2020/21 was a La Niña/+QBO, the most ideal base states and yet apart from a brief dry cold period in February, which was mostly Sudden Stratospheric Warming induced, it was a busted winter. So there's never any guarantees. All we can do is hope the next El Niño performs because that's likely where we are headed for summer and next winter. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the next few winters end up El Niño. All we can do is hope.

I'm definitely hoping for a 2019 style el Nino jr, I just want to play the law of averages and set my expectations accordingly. A multi year dud should not surprise anyone. However lately we are getting some luck so I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way.

[AbbyJr]

I'm definitely hoping for a 2019 style el Nino jr, I just want to play the law of averages and set my expectations accordingly. A multi year did should not surprise anyone. However lately we are getting some luck so I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way.

February 2019 was awesome. But it was also Sudden Stratospheric Warming induced. Those warming events don't always work out for us but when they do, they can save our winter. That said, I agree that it's good to set our expectations according to climo but we can always hope for winter to over perform. It's happened in the past so it can also happen in the future.

[wetcoast91]

+11C outside right now

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

+11C outside right now

Lucky you! Only 8.1°C here. I think the 26th and maybe the 27th are the only days I’ve seen double-digit temperatures IMBY recently. My microclimate sucks.

[PortKells]

+11C outside right now

It's fricking warm man. You must be grinning ear to ear.

[wetcoast91]

It's fricking warm man. You must be grinning ear to ear.

It was nice to run outside in shorts today.

[PortKells]

Winter might come back, don't lose hope!

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[Typeing3]

Climate has certainly warmed since the 1950/60/70 winters but I am not seeing any warming in the last 30 years at all in winter
Summers are dryer and warmer

Maybe goose has stats to proof me wrong

Summer precip stats:

[Canada Goose]

There's a decrease since 2000 but it was also very dry in the 1940's. IMO, we must wait 10-20 years to draw conclusions.

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[Typeing3]

There's a decrease since 2000 but it was also very dry in the 1940's. IMO, we must wait 10-20 years to draw conclusions.



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Looks pretty cyclical to me, especially if going further back and using Steveston as a proxy for YVR. Ups and downs... no noticeable trend.

[Typeing3]

Climate has certainly warmed since the 1950/60/70 winters but I am not seeing any warming in the last 30 years at all in winter
Summers are dryer and warmer

Maybe goose has stats to proof me wrong

Eh, it can go both ways. December and February, yes but no January.

We've completely lost January in the last 30 years.

[PortKells]

There's a decrease since 2000 but it was also very dry in the 1940's. IMO, we must wait 10-20 years to draw conclusions.



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Do you have temps as well?

[PortKells]

There's a decrease since 2000 but it was also very dry in the 1940's. IMO, we must wait 10-20 years to draw conclusions.



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The smoke in 5 of 7 years tells me enough. Everyone I talk to about it who's been around a while says that's unprecedented.

[Radar]

Summer precip stats:

Maybe try overlaying sunspot activity on this and/or el nino effect