November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Catnip
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Don't have time to post but today's weeklies look very nice for January.

:typing:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 10:05 am Would be preferable rather than snowpack destroying :dance: :dancepine:

Maybe we can get a decent inversion going after all.
Yes!! Dry and warm is much better than wet and warm. Speaking of snowpack, I went skiing yesterday on Cypress. Conditions were pretty good. The 2 main chairs were open plus the beginner chair.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

tyweather wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 1:15 pm Yes!! Dry and warm is much better than wet and warm. Speaking of snowpack, I went skiing yesterday on Cypress. Conditions were pretty good. The 2 main chairs were open plus the beginner chair.
nice shots..looking good for late November :hearteyes: :hearteyes:
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 1:03 pm Don't have time to post but today's weeklies look very nice for January.

:typing:
Three decades... :silent:
:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 1:31 pm Three decades... :silent:
#backdoor
backdoor.png
850.png
2m.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

AI Euro for mid Dec.
aifs_z500_anom_noram_348.png
aifs_z500_anom_noram_360.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Catnip wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:11 pm #backdoor

backdoor.png

850.png
2m.png
Only 1000+ hours away
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

While I know it's the clown range, it's nice to at least see some signs of a potential pattern shift around or just after mid December. :thumbup: :wave: :14clown:

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4091200.png
ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-4091200.png
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4199200.png
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:33 pm While I know it's the clown range, it's nice to at least see some signs of a potential pattern shift around or just after mid December. :thumbup: :wave: :14clown:


ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4091200.png

ecmwf-aifs-all-namer-z500_anom-4091200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4199200.png
Mid Dec onward Jr... it's coming!

:thumbup:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

#2ndhalfofDEC
IMG_2598.png
IMG_2597.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Catnip wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:45 pm Mid Dec onward Jr... it's coming!

:thumbup:
Even if we don't go into an arctic outflow pattern right away, it's highly unlikely that the BC ridge dominates the whole month. My guess is we will go into an active pattern after December 10th and perhaps a colder outflow pattern around the end of the month or early January. :thumbup: :wave:
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 1:31 pm Three decades... :silent:
lol..its like that show..the curse of Oak Island..it just goes on and on with no end in sight! :roll: :roll:
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 3:11 pm #backdoor

backdoor.png

850.png
2m.png
If we have solid snow cover heading into it, a prolonged backdoor blast in January can lead to a very chilly monthly average temp. That's essentially how our last cold January (1993) played out... a snowstorm followed a late December cold snap, then another fresh shot of arctic air, which was then followed roughly two weeks of some backdoor action and an inversion as the ridge moved overhead, but still lead to cold surface temps.
:typing: :type3:
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" recently released his seasonal forecast for December through February.

His analogs are 1966/67, 1992/93, and 2016/17. Last cold January was 1993. Could it be? :think: :wave:

Here is his video forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViQeUwMZ5lY
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Re: November 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by walthz »

AbbyJr wrote: Thu Nov 28, 2024 6:30 pm Meteorologist Pete Parsons with the "Oregon Department of Forestry" recently released his seasonal forecast for December through February.

His analogs are 1966/67, 1992/93, and 2016/17. Last cold January was 1993. Could it be? :think: :wave:

Here is his video forecast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViQeUwMZ5lY
I was a baby in Seattle in 66/67, but there's pictures from my family of a skating rink my brothers made in our yard that year.
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