November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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John
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by John »

8 sub zero low temperatures this November quite impressive!
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:11 am Euro is a little more promising than the short-term models for some lowland wet snow:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-1453600.png

Temperature and dew point at 06Z tonight:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-1410400.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-dew2m_c-1410400.png

925 mbar temperature:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t925-1410400.png

So maybe, briefly, if the stars align just right and precip rates are heavy enough. But probably a Burnaby Mountain / Westwood Plateau special.
Lots of uncertainty that comes with the intensity of the precip. Not a whole lot of cold aloft but there will be a rather weak offshore flow push with this weak system. Evaporative cooling at all layers needs heavier precip. Some runs show a very weak system, with light stratiform precipitation. Others have heavier precip being aided by low level wind shear.
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tyweather
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Yay, the ARs have been downgraded and the GFS shows snow next weekend?

Image
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

John wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:13 am 8 sub zero low temperatures this November quite impressive!
It has certainly been a nice stretch of weather recently, imo.

Those stuck in fog may have a different opinion.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

tyweather wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:24 am Yay, the ARs have been downgraded and the GFS shows snow next weekend?

Image
Skeptical of the pattern evolution. Doubt that much low level cold makes its way south but it was a way better run for the local Mountains.

The GEM is just the complete opposite. Full AR from Sunday through Thursday.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:40 am Skeptical of the pattern evolution. Doubt that much low level cold makes its way south but it was a way better run for the local Mountains.

The GEM is just the complete opposite. Full AR from Sunday through Thursday.
I believe the GEM often overdoes things in these setups?

:think: :think:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Catnip wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:41 am I believe the GEM often overdoes things in these setups?

:think: :think:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:44 am Image
No doubt the power of the :dancepine: will be in full force for the next little while.

Team :dancepine: wins this round.

Team :chilly: will look to make a comeback later in December. :silent:
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

:alert:
Low snow levels on the local Mtns this am :think: :think:
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

I had some sort of hail/graupel this morning.
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Hawk wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:49 am :alert:
Low snow levels on the local Mtns this am :think: :think:
Not for long Buttee... right Neetz?
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

GEM looks to drop a very cold system down from the north in :14clown: range.
Gem.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

GEFS Days 10-15

Need some notches :arrow:
index-h.png
index-t.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

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Re: November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Catnip »

GEM enembles day 10-15

:arrow:
gem 10-15h.png
Gem 10-15t.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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