Antares wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Huh, but I thought this stuff couldn't happen in our new climate?
I mean February 2019 happened and all but that was a total fluke.
Not a fluke, but not totally surprising either. We only have 83 years of records, and there are 12 months in each year. Ignoring any possible warming trend, a specific month statistically has a 1 in 83 odds of being the coldest on record. There are 12 months in a year. Therefore, the chance of getting one record cold month in a given year is roughly 1 in 7.
What was our last coldest month on record before February 2019? And how many record warm months have there been during that same interval?
Abby_wx wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:12 pm
Not a fluke, but not totally surprising either. We only have 83 years of records, and there are 12 months in each year. Ignoring any possible warming trend, a specific month statistically has a 1 in 83 odds of being the coldest on record. There are 12 months in a year. Therefore, the chance of getting one record cold month in a given year is roughly 1 in 7.
What was our last coldest month on record before February 2019? And how many record warm months have there been during that same interval?
February 2019 wasn’t record cold here. 1989 and 1936 were colder by a wide margin.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
Monty wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:49 pm
February 2019 wasn’t record cold here. 1989 and 1936 were colder by a wide margin.
Yeah, I think it was only the coldest on record for Vancouver, Abbotsford, Prince George and Williams Lake. These records seemed like low-hanging fruit IMO.
Weather101 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:51 pm
I J walked walked today and I was fine, Fluke
And I said and I'll say it again we won't see 1950 or 1960 cold and snow this winter or next or even in our lifetime so enjoy the false fantasy
Yup, looking at the plot of Aggassiz monthly average temperatures of all months that managed to be below 0c and you can see how unlikely it is to have a repeat of the 1950 extreme. Those cold weather extremes are pretty much impossible. We can still muster just below freezing, but there was quite a drought until recently.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
tyweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 8:23 pm
Yup, looking at the plot of Aggassiz monthly average temperatures of all months that managed to be below 0c and you can see how unlikely it is to have a repeat of the 1950 extreme. Those cold weather extremes are pretty much impossible. We can still muster just below freezing, but there was quite a drought until recently.
Antares wrote: ↑Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:53 pm
And February 2019 didn't need extreme Arctic air to achieve "coldest February on record". In this context, all that matters is temperature anomaly, not the presence of extreme Arctic blasts.
My point was not about whether or whether not (1936 was actually colder by average temp FWIW) it was the coldest month on record. It was about our region's inability to see top tier level arctic blasts now compared with earlier years in our period of record.
1989 and 1936 were colder by a wide margin.
