October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:09 pm Ah yes 1996 Nov. Mark Messier played for the Knucks my son was born that month, it snowed (wet) the day after we brought my son home. We had thunder that month too. And we hit a high of 17c at YVR that month. It's Nov. 1985 that takes the cake.
In terms of cold, November 1985 wins hand down. However...it was relatively dry with about 5-20cm on the ground for two weeks.

If we're going by most significant November snows, I would include 1911, 1955, 1996 or 2006 on that list. Probably missing a few but these are just off the top of my head.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:36 pm If we're going by most significant November snows, I would include 1911, 1955, 1996 or 2006 on that list. Probably missing a few but these are just off the top of my head.
Top 10 November (cm of snow) in Vancouver (YVR) since 1938:

2006 38.4
1975 22.4
2010 16.8 [30.2cm in Coquitlam Como Lake]
1996 15.9
1955 15.2
1985 14.6
1973 12
1970 9.9
1945 9.7
1950 9.1
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Canada Goose wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:48 pm Top 10 November (cm of snow) in Vancouver (YVR) since 1938:

2006 38.4
1975 22.4
2010 16.8 [30.2cm in Coquitlam Como Lake]
1996 15.9
1955 15.2
1985 14.6
1973 12
1970 9.9
1945 9.7
1950 9.1
If you included the old Vancouver (PMO) station which has data back to 1898, I'd expect to see 1911 in there too.

New Westminster had 30.5cm in just one day back in Nov 1911!
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Front has reached Agassiz. Temps have shot up three degrees while the dewpoint has plunged to -11C.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Canada Goose wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 4:13 pm What characterizes above all a change of air mass is the evolution of the dew point. The temperature evolves in a second time.

By the way, Lytton has had a foehn effect.
Very dry air further east.
Yes, I am well aware of that. It was more of a general comment in regards to the potency of the airmass itself.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Sardisbcwx wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:11 pm What front the temp. went up and the wind is south. :lol:
Arctic Fart! Drops dew dews and warms things up.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:12 pm Front has reached Agassiz. Temps have shot up three degrees while the dewpoint has plunged to -11C.
Classic subsidence (foehn effect). 8-)
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:22 pm Arctic Fart! Drops dew dews and warms things up.
That's what we get with these backdoor arctic airmasses. Oregon will likely be big winners with this one yet again
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Canada Goose wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:26 pm Classic subsidence (foehn effect). 8-)
I assume winds in Abby will pick up as the front passes?
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:50 pm I assume winds in Abby will pick up as the front passes?
Yep!

Dew points (even if all these stations are not accurate).


Dew points.jpg
Temperatures.

Temp.jpg
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Canada Goose wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:26 pm Classic subsidence (foehn effect). 8-)
:lol: Arctic farts are the norm around these parts.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Typeing3 wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:37 pm That's what we get with these backdoor arctic airmasses. Oregon will likely be big winners with this one yet again
God dang easterly gradient. The dry air might pay off in some wind sheltered areas especially tomorrow night. Seems to me, could be wrong, but neutral and +ENSO seems to favour these Backdoor airmasses.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

AbbyJr wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:50 pm I assume winds in Abby will pick up as the front passes?
Jr. The Knuckles are doing a foehn effect on the Panthers. :lol: :thumbup:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Canada Goose wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:00 pm For November 9... :D
You noticed that part. The temp profile doesn’t even really support snow either. That was a major problem with this upgraded GFS last winter when it was in trial mode. Perhaps they did not fix that.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:58 pm God dang easterly gradient. The dry air might pay off in some wind sheltered areas especially tomorrow night. Seems to me, could be wrong, but neutral and +ENSO seems to favour these Backdoor airmasses.
Yep. 2013-14 as a most recent example. Chilly here in BC with historic cold in Oregon.
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