December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Can't wait for the Summer. I will take dry weather for the rest of the winter than any sloppy snow. Looking forward for those 18°C calls from Nito. Winter doesn't really excite me anymore.

[SouthSardiswx]

All 3 model suites seem to agree on that giant "troff" in the pacific.

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In fact the extended GEFS has that dang "troff" in play right into the first part of Jan.

Talk about a #patternlock that we don't really want.


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Any chance of afew notches with dip,? wish casting perhaps Catdodo.

[SouthSardiswx]

Can't wait for the Summer. I will take dry weather for the rest of the winter than any sloppy snow. Looking forward for those 18°C calls from Nito. Winter doesn't really excite me anymore.

Yup seems to have us by the ying yangs the past several years.

[Bonovox]

That jet extension showing up in the models is legit.

[wetcoast91]

Sorry , just calling it as I see it.

I'm not happy about it.

2016 to 2023 was a good run for snow fans. Had a few White Christmases. Had a few blizzards.

This region was long due for a total dud and it's coinciding with a strong El Nino. The good news is the 2024-25 winter will a neutral/weak La Nina.

[Typeing3]

2016 to 2023 was a good run for snow fans. Had a few White Christmases. Had a few blizzards.

This region was long due for a total dud and it's coinciding with a strong El Nino. The good news is the 2024-25 winter will a neutral/weak La Nina.

Speaking of snowfall...

Decadal snowfall in Vancouver


1900s
1900: 32.5cm
1901: 128.5cm
1902: 22.9cm
1903: 45.2cm
1904: 80.1cm
1905: 7.6cm
1906: 23.7cm
1907: 58.7cm
1908: 8.4cm
1909: 49.6cm
Total snowfall 1900s: 457.2cm
Annual average snowfall 1900s: 45.7cm


1910s
1910: 62cm
1911: 162.1cm
1912: 23.8cm
1913: 166.8cm
1914: 44.7cm
1915: 7.6cm
1916: 207.8cm
1917: 185.6cm
1918: 108.2cm
1919: 82.6cm
Total snowfall 1910s: 1051.2cm
Annual average snowfall 1910s: 105.1cm


1920s
1920: 15.1cm
1921: 62.7cm
1922: 120.7cm
1923: 111.9cm
1924: 32.3cm
1925: 12.4cm
1926: 47.2cm
1927: 132.6cm
1928: 8.4cm
1929: 107.7cm
Total snowfall 1920s: 651cm
Annual average snowfall 1920s: 65.1cm


1930s
1930: 30.5cm
1931: 17.3cm
1932: 73.9cm
1933: 124.5cm
1934: 40.6cm
1935: 110.3cm
1936: 64.8cm
1937: 171.4cm
1938: 58.1cm
1939: 19.3cm
Total snowfall 1930s: 710.7cm
Annual average snowfall 1930s: 71.1cm


1940s
1940: 11.6cm
1941: 2.3cm
1942: 27.6cm
1943: 41.4cm
1944: 8.9cm
1945: 10.3cm
1946: 35.9cm
1947: 38.2cm
1948: 62.5cm
1949: 82.8cm
Total snowfall 1940s: 321.5cm
Annual average snowfall 1940s: 32.2cm


1950s
1950: 106.9cm
1951: 123.1cm
1952: 41.4cm
1953: 8.6cm
1954: 81.3cm
1955: 55.9cm
1956: 62cm
1957: 62.2cm
1958: 33.5cm
1959: 26.2cm
Total snowfall 1950s: 601.1cm
Annual average snowfall 1950s: 60.1cm


1960s
1960: 38.1cm
1961: 33.5cm
1962: 92cm
1963: 14.2cm
1964: 106.7cm
1965: 86.4cm
1966: 69.9cm
1967: 33cm
1968: 71.9cm
1969: 71.4cm
Total snowfall 1960s: 617.1cm
Annual average snowfall 1960s: 61.7cm


1970s
1970: 40.3cm
1971: 242.6cm
1972: 58.7cm
1973: 29.4cm
1974: 40.7cm
1975: 119cm
1976: 37.9cm
1977: 30.8cm
1978: 43.5cm
1979: 10.1cm
Total snowfall 1970s: 653cm
Annual average snowfall 1970s: 65.3cm


1980s
1980: 45.9cm
1981: 22.6cm
1982: 60.8cm
1983: 12cm
1984: 38.6cm
1985: 56.7cm
1986: 17.6cm
1987: 8.2cm
1988: 11.4cm
1989: 38.6cm
Total snowfall 1980s: 312.4cm
Annual average snowfall 1980s: 31.2cm


1990s
1990: 102cm
1991: 67.4cm
1992: 35cm
1993: 33.3cm
1994: 18.6cm
1995: 22cm
1996: 130.4cm
1997: 8cm
1998: 48.9cm
1999: 4.4cm
Total snowfall 1990s: 470cm
Annual average snowfall 1990s: 47.0cm


2000s
2000: 33.8cm
2001: 18.2cm
2002: 48.9cm
2003: 18.5cm
2004: 8.1cm
2005: 29cm
2006: 44.8cm
2007: 37.7cm
2008: 109cm
2009: 26.4cm
Total snowfall 2000s: 374.4cm
Annual average snowfall 2000s: 37.4cm


2010s
2010: 16.8cm
2011: 24.1cm
2012: 27.2cm
2013: 11.6cm
2014: 25.8cm
2015: Trace
2016: 28.4cm
2017: 43.4cm
2018: 25.8cm
2019: 32.2cm
Total snowfall 2010s: 235.3cm
Annual average snowfall 2010s: 23.5cm


2020s
2020: 45.4cm
2021: 48.3cm
2022: 73cm
2023: 29.7cm
Total snowfall 2020s: 196.4cm
Annual average snowfall 2020s: 49.1cm




Data: Vancouver PMO (1900-1937) + YVR (1938-present)

[AbbyJr]

That jet extension showing up in the models is legit.

I’m still not giving up on winter. Obviously I’m biased but still…

January curse will end when we least expect it.

[Weather101]

That jet extension showing up in the models is legit.

Yea it definitely is

[Vancouver]

It's always been my experience that the best winter weather appears when everything looks real boring. Nov 2006 and Dec 2008 were prime examples.

[AbbyJr]

Sudden Stratospheric Warming anyone? The control run looks absolutely off the charts insane.

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[SouthSardiswx]

Sudden Stratospheric Warming anyone? The control run looks absolutely off the charts insane.


gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-3721600.png

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That's absolutely insane Jr. Man, the high @ the pond in south Sardis was 6c with 7.2mm since midnight.

[AbbyJr]

Lots of flooding at Fishtrap Creek Park in Abbotsford. My guess is it was mostly from last week's AR. My dad captured this photo today.

IMG_20231210_115913208_HDR.jpeg

[Catnip]

Speaking of snowfall...

Decadal snowfall in Vancouver

1990s
1996: 130.4cm

2000s
2008: 109cm




Data: Vancouver PMO (1900-1937) + YVR (1938-present)

Thank you for compiling that Typer.

Glad to have been able to experience these two winters. 1996... I had just bought my Jeep that year. Oh what fun that snowfall was. Will never forget being the first one down the side streets through #feetz of snow.

[SouthSardiswx]

Thank you for compiling that Typer.

Glad to have been able to experience these two winters. 1996... I had just bought my Jeep that year. Oh what fun that snowfall was. Will never forget being the first one down the side streets through #feetz of snow.

Those two winters will probably be it in our life time but not yours Cat man you still got 7 lives left.

[Hawk]

All precip from today onwards falls as rain below 1500m.


In fact, we will probably not see any subzero temps on the local mountains over the next 2 weeks.

Cypress has a 50cm base at the mid point which will melt away before Christmas.

Its already snowing on Grouse Mtn right now Nito