January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

0242ED07-3623-4D87-ABA6-2023C7B2D223.png
E359C07B-7A18-4E0D-963A-615DB725E594.png

[John]

Snowy

[Catnip]

Lots of snow chances again on the 18z.

Only 9.5 days away!

[Hawk]

Lots of snow chances again on the 18z.

Only 9.5 days away!

[Catnip]

Only 15 days away!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1355 ... 53538?s=19

[Catnip]

^^^^^^^

[SouthSardiswx]

I think it is always useful to compare model predictions especially when we are looking at 10 days out. Here are the three long range forecasts from 4 am this morning. Notice the ECMWF is the coldest and potentially snowiest. The GFS shows somewhat below temps and maybe snow. The GEM global shows the cold air staying over the Interior. I can see why the snow lovers have cherry picked the ECMWF and granted it usually does better in the longer range than the other models. But at this point, there certainly isn't any consensus, so will have to wait and see as we get closer to February 8th. By the way the GFS has really been flip flopping the past few days, showing a strong upper ridge one day over Western BC and then then next run the ridge is well off the coast with a northerly flow aloft. I think it is the least reliable of the long range models.

Nice read Nimble man.

[Antares]

I think it is always useful to compare model predictions especially when we are looking at 10 days out. Here are the three long range forecasts from 4 am this morning. Notice the ECMWF is the coldest and potentially snowiest. The GFS shows somewhat below temps and maybe snow. The GEM global shows the cold air staying over the Interior. I can see why the snow lovers have cherry picked the ECMWF and granted it usually does better in the longer range than the other models. But at this point, there certainly isn't any consensus, so will have to wait and see as we get closer to February 8th. By the way the GFS has really been flip flopping the past few days, showing a strong upper ridge one day over Western BC and then then next run the ridge is well off the coast with a northerly flow aloft. I think it is the least reliable of the long range models.

The GFS was the first and only model to lock onto the January 2020 cold spell when it first emerged.

NEVER FORGET!!!

[Hawk]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1355 ... 53538?s=19

>BUTTEE

[John]

Kuchera snow maps please
Saw on af look amazing lol

[Catnip]

18z Ensembles

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

[SouthSardiswx]

18z Ensembles





gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

[Nimbus2]

The GFS was the first and only model to lock onto the January 2020 cold spell when it first emerged.

NEVER FORGET!!!

How far ahead did it predict the cold spell?

[SouthSardiswx]

How far ahead did it predict it?

l recall late Dec/19