November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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SouthSardiswx
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Hopefully the trend continues to be our friend. :clap: :thumbup:
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Definitely starting to see changes in the long range but it will be pushed off yet a bit before the real stuff comes
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

All ready at 62mm storm total!
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

68mm in the last 24h, 81mm for the storm. Still raining heavily.
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Italia!

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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Deeeeecent. :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:27 am Deeeeecent. :thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

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Finally close to average!
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

John wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:16 am Definitely starting to see changes in the long range but it will be pushed off yet a bit before the real stuff comes
Yeah I'm still thinking we see a predominantly active W/NW pattern from late Nov into mid Dec. Perhaps a "warning shot" in early December but nothing too crazy.
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

Impressive rainstorm.
20191117_091023.jpg
The pic is the Coquitlam river near the Crystal falls trail right by my house.
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Sardisbcwx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:46 am Courtesy of the AF so which SSW will we end up with. :?
Any of the modeling that has hinted at the SSW occurring has shown it originating in Siberia. Models tend to handle these events much better at long range than they do surface details. You don’t see wild swings like you would when the gfs shows a snowstorm at day 16. That said a full SSW occurrence is not set in stone at this point.
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Monty wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:55 am Any of the modeling that has hinted at the SSW occurring has shown it originating in Siberia. Models tend to handle these events much better at long range than they do surface details. You don’t see wild swings like you would when the gfs shows a snowstorm at day 16. That said a full SSW occurrence is not set in stone at this point.

8C48B7F0-78AC-4D52-9282-9DA5E1960322.png
The SSW will definitely throw a wrench into long range forecasting. With that said...it appears that Siberian based stratospheric warming bodes well for us in terms of cold. If so, expect the long range to continue trending cooler...
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Antares »

Effects of SSW events are usually seen 2-3 weeks after.

Dec 15-onwards then if it verifies. :snowwindow: :snowwindow: :snowwindow:
It always snows in December in the Kootenays :clap:
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Antares wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:25 am Effects of SSW events are usually seen 2-3 weeks after.

Dec 15-onwards then if it verifies. :snowwindow: :snowwindow: :snowwindow:
Nice. I assume that’s a second story window in that picture :snowman: :drunk:
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Re: November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 10:06 am The SSW will definitely throw a wrench into long range forecasting. With that said...it appears that Siberian based stratospheric warming bodes well for us in terms of cold. If so, expect the long range to continue trending cooler...
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