October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Total fantasy-land on those ECMWF snow forecasts. It’s a distinct minority of runs saying that, and most of them are calling for it deep into clown range.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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PortKells
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:09 am Total fantasy-land on those ECMWF snow forecasts. It’s a distinct minority of runs saying that, and most of them are calling for it deep into clown range.
We probably don't want it anyways. October snow has traditionally been a curse on the following winter.
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:59 am We probably don't want it anyways. October snow has traditionally been a curse on the following winter.
Not in 1984-85, 1971-72 or 1956-57!
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

:alert:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 7663789057

https://mobile.twitter.com/50ShadesofVa ... 2369682436

https://mobile.twitter.com/meteo_matt/s ... 2532958208

https://mobile.twitter.com/weathernetwo ... 7113143297

https://mobile.twitter.com/MurphTWN/sta ... 2614572033

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMadryga/sta ... 1817538560
https://mobile.twitter.com/MMadryga/sta ... 7393787906

https://mobile.twitter.com/YKA_Weather/ ... 5702182912
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

:alert:

https://mobile.twitter.com/vancity_kapo ... 3044255751

https://mobile.twitter.com/lilbrixvae/s ... 4854644738

https://mobile.twitter.com/Voice4Silent ... 0305585152

https://mobile.twitter.com/HouckisPokis ... 0937476097

https://mobile.twitter.com/Abhaysidhu45 ... 5326558210

https://mobile.twitter.com/mor10/status ... 9836763136

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThoughtsOnMo ... 8628958208
:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

:alert:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/s ... 9016422400
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/s ... 1178989568

https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherJefe/ ... 8172572675

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinCoskren ... 4210139138

https://mobile.twitter.com/ingallswx/st ... 5153118211

https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 6043335680
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 1638119424
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 8925371393
https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 3300749312
:typing: :type3:
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

12z Precip

Nothing too crazy. GFS wants to blast the Central/Northern parts of the Island though.

GFS
gfs.png
bc.png
Euro
Euro.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

Models have trended North with the heavier precip. A few days ago it looked more like a Western Washington event. The mountains of the Sea to Sky region looks like they'll be getting hit pretty hard and that region is susceptible to early season flooding as we saw in October 2003 and October 1984 as well as Labor day weekend 1991.
prec2-13.png
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

18z a bit “drier” than the 12z.

Again, lots of rain further North.
6F4DA9E3-7045-4584-8D36-3E3853D82F2E.png
9CE6C6C5-A59A-475C-8402-E7A21798618D.png
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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (60).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (61).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (62).png
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20221020001239-b702f10dd0e34ee19410a8fa1d64220ef9628b20.png
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles

12z GEFS (GFS ensembles)
gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (6).png

12z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)
eps_apcpn_wus_60 (6).png

12z GEPS (GEM ensembles)
gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64 (7).png
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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by moonshadow0825 »

Roberts Creeker wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:31 pm
SWS - air quality for a whole lot of BC all in one, I've never seen it done this way before, it's always been more local.
I recall one for fog that was province wide, 2013? I managed to be on the one plane that managed to land in Cranbrook in that entire week, had to drive to Calgary and take a plane from there to get home.
:wsnow: :13snow:

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

We had some fog hang around YVR for most of the day today.
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Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 8:46 pm We had some fog hang around YVR for most of the day today.
Your “office” definitely wins the award for the best view!

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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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