December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

Week 1 will also feature a dry spell here. Just 1.3mm of precip for December so far

[AbbyJr]

Suppression depression for us on the mainland during that event. The massive snowstorm dove south and left us cold with some flurries.

I recall that being an epic model collapse as everything was in place for us to get historic snowfall and suddenly at the last minute the models drove it all south, correct me if I'm wrong?

[Catnip]

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[AbbyJr]

Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations obviously.

[Monty]

I recall that being an epic model collapse as everything was in place for us to get historic snowfall and suddenly at the last minute the models drove it all south, correct me if I'm wrong?

I don’t recall that being the case. Could be wrong. 2011 was the collapse when everything shifted north dramatically about 3 days out.

[AbbyJr]

I don’t recall that being the case. Could be wrong. 2011 was the collapse when everything shifted north dramatically about 3 days out.

January 2011?

[Monty]

January 2011?

Yes January 2011. The GFS had 3 consecutive snowstorms cutting through Washington state. In reality these storms made landfall up near the central BC coast.

[Typeing3]

January 2011?

Yeah. It all happened within a 72hr window.

Edit: see Monty's post above.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah. It all happened within a 72hr window.

Edit: see Monty's post above.

Just goes to show how hard it is to predict the weather, especially in our complex region.

But seriously, can we at least get a nice AR event? I just want some kind of interesting weather. This chilly overcast drizzly dry trend is really irritating and old. Where's our storms???

[AbbyJr]

From Brett Anderson:

There appear to be several conflicting signals for the overall weather pattern across North America for the rest of December. This leads to a lower confidence in the outlook. However, I am fairly confident that temperatures will continue to average above to much above normal over Alaska and into northwestern Canada during the month. This should mean that the main path for cold air will be directed down through the eastern Prairies and into Ontario and western Quebec. The main storm track may be close to the East and Atlantic coast.

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[Storm]

Historic cold.

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[Catnip]

From Brett Anderson:

Looks about right. Although 23-29 could change... hopefully.

[Catnip]

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[Catnip]

I think we need to get through the next few weeks and then see what happens. If the thought is late December/Early January then we are still too far out to see things change on the models. The weeklies did show a bit of hope, so its best to keep an eye on them for the time being.

[AbbyJr]

I think we need to get through the next few weeks and then see what happens. If the thought is late December/Early January then we are still too far out to see things change on the models. The weeklies did show a bit of hope, so its best to keep an eye on them for the time being.

Guns N' Roses Parody
By Jr

Said “Jr take it slow things will work for us in time”
All we need is just a little patience
Said “Nito it will snow and things will be just fine”
All we need is just a little patience

I better finish writing this one...