November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Looks like a dry/cool sort of pattern to my untrained eye.

[Canada Goose]

Meanwhile, in Zeballos...

Capture d’écran, le 2019-11-15 à 16.20.31.jpg

[Monty]

Good connection to the tropics with this one.

Probably 300mm incoming to NW sections of Vancouver Island. (Upslope areas)

[Monty]

#earlydecember. ❄️

[Typeing3]

#earlydecember. ❄️

I'm thinking mid or late December into early Jan. We'll probably see a period of zonal flow towards the end of November and early December as the ridge retrogrades towards the GOA.

[SouthSardiswx]

A mild El Nito breeze today from the southwest, had a gust as high as 40kmh with an afternoon high of 13.7c and its still 13.5c. Still saying Nov. 08 analog, 1949 as well.

[Forrest Gump]

#earlydecember. ❄️

Nito said 3rd week of Dec , right on the button.

[SouthSardiswx]

Nito said 3rd week of Dec , right on the button.

Actually El Nito says alot of things.

[SouthSardiswx]

Abby Sr. whats your gut feeling for Dec.?

[Abby_wx]

Abby Sr. whats your gut feeling for Dec.?

I'm not someone who looks at the long range very much, so literally all I have are gut feelings. That said, I feel like the second half of December will be cold.

[Forrest Gump]

Actually El Nito says alot of things.

That might be , but you say the most things. Poor Nito only has half a star (cloud watcher) vs Sardineman the 4 star model rider
Sardineman 1668 pts - 145 pts for El Nito

[Coquitlam79]

18z GFS has another epic dry spell after about Nov 21. This is gonna be a really dry November even with the AR this weekend. CPC dry signaling for 6-10 and 8-14 day. Same pattern as 2002. Literally to a "T". Drought like conditions, than 2 weeks of rain than back to a ridiculous resilient ridge. Winter 02-03 was very similar to 2014-2015. Both had long dry spells with intermittent shifts to AR patterns. Both had February droughts. Both had very wet March's. I guess all we can hope for is the pattern to change like it did in 2005-2006 (dry and ridgy period from Nov to mid December, stormy and active pattern after that ). 2006 ended up with a solid snowpack after literally no snow until late December that winter. Also 1989-1990 similar to 05-06 in regards to the late mountain snowpack accumulations . There is hope!

[SouthSardiswx]

18z GFS has another epic dry spell after about Nov 21. This is gonna be a really dry November even with the AR this weekend. CPC dry signaling for 6-10 and 8-14 day. Same pattern as 2002. Literally to a "T". Drought like conditions, than 2 weeks of rain than back to a ridiculous resilient ridge. Winter 02-03 was very similar to 2014-2015. Both had long dry spells with intermittent shifts to AR patterns. Both had February droughts. Both had very wet March's. I guess all we can hope for is the pattern to change like it did in 2005-2006 (dry and ridgy period from Nov to mid December, stormy and active pattern after that ). 2006 ended up with a solid snowpack after literally no snow until late December that winter. Also 1989-1990 similar to 05-06 in regards to the late mountain snowpack accumulations . There is hope!

Nice read again C79 some interesting analog years in there for sure so it could end up being decent or really bad for us based on those analog years.

[SouthSardiswx]

That might be , but you say the most things. Poor Nito only has half a star (cloud watcher) vs Sardineman the 4 star model rider
Sardineman 1668 pts - 145 pts for El Nito

Errrrrrr….well I o.k.

[Catnip]

I'm starting to wonder if Whistler will be opening on time this year.

Their opening dates the last several years:

19/20 11/28/2019 (scheduled)
18/19 11/22/2018
17/18 11/17/2017
16/17 11/23/2016
15/16 11/19/2015
14/15 11/22/2014