January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

Finally, today's CFSv2 Monthly is showing cold temps and wetter than normal precip for Feb on the west coast.

[wetcoast91]

You like to mention the American wx forums, but you are basically the Canadian version of Tim.

Yeah except...



Oilers are the 2nd best team in Alberta!

[Monty]

I wouldn’t be shocked to see something pop up in what is the 8-12 day range right now. We will see. Definitely potential for a wet AR early next week

[wetcoast91]

I wouldn’t be shocked to see something pop up in what is the 8-12 day range right now. We will see. Definitely potential for a wet AR early next week

Well, historically...an AR event is a precursor to a cold wave. So an AR event likely indicates some sort of progression with the AK/mid Pacific troughing. Models tend not to pick up these sudden changes within 180 HRS.

I don't buy retrogression with persistent troughing near the date line and Greenland block, especially with how active the Pacific looks. This would seem to indicate a potential Feb 2010 setup which appears unlikely.



This could happen...but would be a indictment of how screwed up our climate is now to have this sort of progression 3 of the past 4 years.

[Monty]

We are probably still seeing model variability with the SSW but the long range GFS pretty much nuked the idea of prolonged high latitude blocking

[Bonovox]

GEFS still likes the idea of a NPAC block.

[wetcoast91]

Gets close...real close

[Bonovox]

GEFS still likes the idea of a NPAC block.

Better than the 06z with the blocking too.

[PortKells]

Ensembles are everything at this range.

[Catnip]

Gets close...real close

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[Bonovox]

Meanwhile the 12z GEPS is even better than the 00z.

[Bonovox]

12z GEFS is an improvement over the 06z.

[Bonovox]

Oilers are the 2nd best team in Alberta!

I almost missed that!

[Bonovox]

Good finish to the 12z GEFS. NPAC ridge, SE ridge and what looks like a Kona low forming.

Slowly, but surely, everything is coming together. Will want to see the timing move up in future runs.

[PortKells]

Good finish to the 12z GEFS. NPAC ridge, SE ridge and what looks like a Kona low forming.

Slowly, but surely, everything is coming together. Will want to see the timing move up in future runs.

That matches nicely with the Canadian. Good tilt. Need a bit more amplification but for that far out, that's a pretty thing.