November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[wetcoast91]

00z GFS ensembles:
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00z ECMWF ensembles:
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00z GEM ensembles:
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Good news for the mountains!

[tyweather]

Good news for the mountains!

Hopefully the ski season starts at the local mountains on December 8. That is the planned opening date for Cypress apparently.

[AbbyJr]

Sort of reminds me of the 2002-03 El Niño season at this point. Doesn’t mean we continue to follow that indefinitely but the first half of December is toast IMO as far as winter weather at level goes.

Some signs are starting to point towards a Pineapple Express pattern around day 10-14. Ski hills are gonna be hurting for snow in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

I'd be okay with that.

I'm just hoping we don't have to endure a major winter drought, which is unfortunately not off the table at this point. However, I'm cautiously optimistic that we will some kind of active weather pattern by mid December. Maybe some Atmospheric River and wind events.

That said, I was wrong about early December so at this point my forecasts going forward might be somewhat biased with wishful thinking.
But I do see signs of a significant weakening of the Polar Vortex through December. Might not see a true Sudden Stratospheric Warming but if we can somehow pull one off, then that could set us up for colder and possibly snowy pattern... shall I say it? Fine. In January. But...

[SouthSardiswx]

I'd be okay with that.

I'm just hoping we don't have to endure a major winter drought, which is unfortunately not off the table at this point. However, I'm cautiously optimistic that we will some kind of active weather pattern by mid December. Maybe some Atmospheric River and wind events.

That said, I was wrong about early December so at this point my forecasts going forward might be somewhat biased with wishful thinking.
But I do see signs of a significant weakening of the Polar Vortex through December. Might not see a true Sudden Stratospheric Warming but if we can somehow pull one off, then that could set us up for colder and possibly snowy pattern... shall I say it? Fine. In January. But...

Here you go Jr. man from the A.I. almanac some hope.

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[SouthSardiswx]

It's a clear and frosty morning in the central valley and -1c with an overnight low of -2c and the drought continues on it's unreal no end in sight perhaps by December 1st next week if we're lucky. The city of Chilliwack put up the dollar store Christmas decorations on Friday.

[wetcoast91]

No changes. Winter is still cancelled.

[AbbyJr]

No changes. Winter is still cancelled.

Too soon to say.

[SouthSardiswx]

Too soon to say.

Yes snow tires off snow shovel put in shed, patio furniture back on the deck mowing tomorrow at the pond in south Sardis. Probably do our Christmas turkey on the BBQ this year on the deck we reached a high of 9c today and it's currently 0c.

[Roberts Creeker]

00z GFS ensembles:
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Thanks Typeing, these are so helpful.

[SouthSardiswx]

Thanks Typeing, these are so helpful.

TSanta delivers appreciate it too man it's difficult so far this fall/winter the interest is non existent but there's still afew of us that take a peek hoping that Santa will throw us a bone in December. this is absolutely horrible both in the low lands and ski hills.
When you think about it since 2021 record heat hump followed by record rainfall and flooding now what's shaping up to be a record breaking drought this winter is insane.

[SouthSardiswx]

-2c was the low @ the pond in south Sardis this morning.
It's pretty bad when there's only a post or 2 during the day where's everyone? mowing their lawns at the beach can't be Christmas shopping that can be done online.

[Typeing3]

Low of -2.5c in east Coquitlam.

[Typeing3]

No changes. Winter is still cancelled.

1976-77!
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/outd ... bc-1947387

Grouse’s system once again proved beneficial during the “snow drought” of 1976-77. That season, B.C’s ski resorts faced unseasonably warm temperatures and historically low precipitation totals. Ski resorts across the province, including Whistler Mountain, had to temporarily close their operations. The situation was little better at Grouse. On Feb. 1, 1977, the resort measured only two centimetres of snow at its peak – its lowest snowpack in recent memory. But, Grouse remained in partial operation thanks to its snow-making system. Concentrated snow-making on the Paradise run kept it open to skiers for weekend use.

Just like 2014-15...

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[Catnip]

6z GFS HAMMERS some areas with Rain. Oregon looks to take the brunt on this run.

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