January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:43 am

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:37 am I know it's hard to believe but I actually think February has potential with the MJO moving into phase 7 and the second burst of stratospheric warming peaking.

That, and the GFS operational has been hinting at this and the ensembles are caving to it.

Plus Nito said so...

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:45 am

Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:39 am In a region where snowfall is already limited, that decline is staggering.

Yup. 40% decline

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:46 am

What are the numbers last 6 winters if we include this one so far? Grim?

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:49 am

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:32 am UHI usually impacts temperatures rather than wind direction. The exception is in the summer when you may get stronger offshore breezes during the day with the steeper thermeral gradient. My colleague did research back between 2010 and 2012 in South Surrey and concluded the developments having a +0.5 to 1C impact on temperatures during the day. May not look impactful but this was one area and every increase has lasting impacts on biodiversity.

How does UHI make for stronger offshore breezes during the day? This seems counter to how things would work in my mind. Increased surface temps would cause more rising air over land, lowering surface air pressures and increasing sea breezes. NO?

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:54 am

Good point Monty but I didn't want to dispute what he was saying LOL

AbbyJr · Post by **AbbyJr** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:54 am

WeatherPro!!!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_63.png

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:55 am

I think he meant to say onshore

Monty · Post by **Monty** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:55 am

Oh yea.

2ABAB29B-FA52-42B6-A8D8-15C2B4F63738.gif

BA2FC16B-0500-4315-9874-2DCC618A6280.gif

wetcoast91 · Post by **wetcoast91** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:58 am

Monty wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:49 am How does UHI make for stronger offshore breezes during the day? This seems counter to how things would work in my mind. Increased surface temps would cause more rising air over land, lowering surface air pressures and increasing sea breezes. NO?

Yeah my bad. I meant to say onshore. Always get those two confused.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:59 am

Hawk wrote: ↑Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:46 am What are the numbers last 6 winters if we include this one so far? Grim?

It's grim.

1961-1990 yearly average: 54.9cm
1971-2000 yearly average: 48.2cm
1981-2010 yearly average: 38.1cm

Here's the annual snowfall at YVR going back 10 years.

2010 total: 16.8cm
2011 total: 24.1cm
2012 total: 27.2cm
2013 total: 11.6cm
2014 total: 25.8cm
2015 total: T
2016 total: 28.4cm
2017 total: 43.4cm
2018 total: 25.8cm
2019 total: 32.2cm
2020 total: 45.4cm
2021 total: T

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:00 pm

U guys are the best gif ers

Hawk · Post by **Hawk** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:01 pm

Wow last 6 is grim. Last 12 even grimmer

Slytyguy · Post by **Slytyguy** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:11 pm

Promising

Roberts Creeker · Post by **Roberts Creeker** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:12 pm

More snow, temp has dropped to 2.3. Coming down for the past 5 minutes, no accumulations but sure is pretty.

Typeing3 · Post by **Typeing3** » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:15 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 0791182336

January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

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