February 2022 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

E.C. has a 60% of flurries for the valley by mid week.

[Hawk]

Did hawk actually make the move or is he just at his/her cabin?

It was a very spring like +6 in Princeton today.

I'm local but go there amap. Yes it can get bommy up there too when the warm S winds kick in..but at this time of year it's usually a very brief warm up.
And its Hawk, not Hawkette

[Hawk]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 6239810560

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https://mobile.twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy ... 4794076160

Omg I love troffs and the instability they bring in cold situations

[Hawk]

He's got a cabin up there. I'm honestly happy for him and he must know that most of us would take that opportunity in a second if we could.

Yes one of these days I'll post some pics..maybe even post a hawk selfie while sledding. Yesssss.
I'm not really saying to go and move there but a winter vacation for a week up there during a snowy period would be extremely beneficial to the coastal snowstarved folk.

[PortKells]

Look at the EPO in the long range. This wave could actually just be the teaser.

[SouthSardiswx]

Look at the EPO in the long range. This wave could actually just be the teaser.

OMGoodness Kells Jr. Man may get his 1951 in 2022. that's absolutely wild.

[PortKells]

OMGoodness Kells Jr. Man may get his 1951 in 2022. that's absolutely wild.

I'm not going that far. At the moment I would put my money on a 1-2 punch. probability is always heavily against anything amazing but you never know.

Unfortunately this euro run was a dud..only the GEM is still on board for an overrunning event around Thursday.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (17).png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (18).png

[Typeing3]

Look at the EPO in the long range. This wave could actually just be the teaser.

If the PNA is neutral or positive at the same time that could mean we end up on the east side of a large GOA ridge. Would be relatively mild and dry around here.

[PortKells]

If the PNA is neutral or positive at the same time that could mean we end up on the east side of a large GOA ridge. Would be relatively mild and dry around here.

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-5272000.png

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ensembleator ... 3954407428

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[Hawk]

and

Similkameen
Risk of snow squall across the southern interior of B.C.

Time Span: This evening through midday Sunday.

Highways: Coquihalla Highway - Merritt to Kamloops, Okanagan Connector - Merritt to Kelowna, Highway 97 - Clinton to 100 Mile House via Begbie Summit.

Locations: South Okanagan - including Penticton, Similkameen,
North Okanagan - including Vernon, Central Okanagan - including Kelowna, Fraser Canyon - north including Lillooet, Fraser Canyon - south including Lytton, Nicola, South Thompson, Shuswap, West Columbia, North Thompson, West Kootenay, Kootenay Lake, East Kootenay, Elk Valley, 100 Mile, Chilcotin.

Remarks: A cold front has moved through the B.C. southern interior this afternoon, bringing colder temperatures and leaving the region favourable for snow squalls to develop starting this evening. There is also a potential for thundersnow and its associated strong winds at 40 gusting 60 km/h early this evening.

When a snow squall develops, a brief period of heavy snow with near zero visibility will impact localized areas.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS ensembles

ens_image (19).png

[Typeing3]

Vancouver - Lowest 850mb temp on the ensemble mean.

00z ECMWF: -13.1c (Tuesday 10am)
00z GFS: -12.1c (Tuesday 10am)
00z GEM: -10.7c (Tuesday 10am & Wednesday 10am)

[Monty]

Ended up totally dry here today. Just 5.8mm for the month so far at Shawnigan Lake.