January 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

+EPO and +PNA. Beauty isnt it? We could see some very warm weather if that ridge pivots a bit further east.

Yes this would be quite the Nina winter lol. Bring on the warm ridging next!! Go Get em Nito!
#TeamNito

[Monty]

I appreciate that. I hope it didn't come across preachy. I just don't think we should be name calling.



It is perplexing that anybody would suggest that there is ensemble support for a +PNA in the long range. I mean look at the ensembles. Where is it?

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9934400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-9956000.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-pna-box-9891200.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-9934400.png

You trying to jinx this thing? GEFS looking ridgier tonight.

[AbbyJr]

You trying to jinx this thing? GEFS looking ridgier tonight.

No but I do notice that. Its not concerning me at all though. SSW is still in progress. Models will flip flop.

Still no solid +PNA modelled in the long range ensembles.

[wetcoast91]

No but I do notice that. Its not concerning me at all though. SSW is still in progress. Models will flip flop.

Still no solid +PNA modelled in the long range ensembles.

Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.

[Monty]

No but I do notice that. Its not concerning me at all though. SSW is still in progress. Models will flip flop.

Still no solid +PNA modelled in the long range ensembles.

Ensembles might look a little better at the very end of week 2. We stole February 2019 from the east. Perhaps this will be their payback.

[Monty]

Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.

[Monty]

I thought the GEPS looked a bit better tonight. On to the euro.

[wetcoast91]

[tyweather]

Not a bad ending

[Forrest Gump]

[AbbyJr]

Looks like a solid +PNA on the GFS and Ens. My bet is the ECMWF comes around to this as well.

I don't trust any long range solution that far in advance, especially during a SSW. That said, trends tonight on the GEFS aren't encouraging.

But there is no reason to suspect the Euro is going to come around this solution either. My guess is we do see a cold and snowy pattern set up late month or early February at the latest. It will also likely pop up in the models with short notice.

This prolonged SSW is going to drive the models crazy. No way we can have any level of confidence in any given solution at this point, whether it be a 1969 or a 2015 pattern shown.

I should add that even though the trends in the GFS and ensembles aren't encouraging, I don't see a solid +PNA in any of the long term solutions. That said, I don't trust what those models are showing long term anyways. There certainly is a brief +PNA signal in the more believable range, but the discussions as of recent are in the long range possibilities, which clearly favour a -PNA. Whether it works out for us or not is still very much unknown at this point. You can have a -PNA and be stuck with chilly rain. Unfortunately, there are no guarantees we see arctic air and snow.

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1360000.png

[wetcoast91]

I thought the GEPS looked a bit better tonight. On to the euro.

[SouthSardiswx]

well done Gimps.

[SouthSardiswx]

And the torching has begun on the B.C. forums.

[SouthSardiswx]

Not a bad ending

Its always 384 chances nothing happens.