January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

From the national weather service looks like they expect the outflow to pick up again and have a big overrunning event Thursday:



“Next system moving inland over Oregon later Tuesday with most of
the moisture south of the area. Fraser river outflow winds picking
up during the day with the Bellingham to Williams Lake gradient
decreasing down to near -15 mb. High Tuesday once again near 40
with a little cooler temperatures over Whatcom county.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Models in good agreement
with a little break in the action Wednesday before the next
system moving up from the southwest reaches the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. This is a troublesome track with the
possibility of a strong overrunning snow event in Whatcom and
Skagit county later Wednesday night into Thursday. South of Skagit
county the warmer air aloft will scour out any colder air mass
remaining making the precipitation type rain in the lowlands.
Fraser river outflow winds coming to an end later Thursday with
the air mass over Whatcom and Skagit county quickly warming up.
System stalling over Western Washington Thursday night. Heavy
snow likely in the Cascades with the snow levels possibly rising
over pass levels. With easterly gradients in the passes keeping
cold air at the pass surface this could lead to a freezing rain
event in the passes later Thursday into Thursday night. Surface
gradients turning onshore Friday as the front finally moves out of
the area. Daytime temperatures warming into the mid 40s.
Unsettled weather continuing into Saturday. Felton “

Ha!

Screen Shot 2022-01-02 at 08.38.27.png

[Hawk]

Is this new snowfall warning or updated one?
Screenshot_20220102-082745_WeatherCAN.jpg

My guess is this was posted after 5cm already fell W Metro this am. Like i said, EC will update their forecast this am to drop temps down again and show more snow. There you have it. Next EC forecast edit at 4pm today

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

You realize that snow levels are dropping again soon... once the front passes thru right? GFS is bullish on snow Monday pm thru to Thursday pretty much. I believe they also predicted(~2 days ago) the big donut over us right now. T3? Can you verify this?
KING GFS!

GFS often overdoes the cold. It had -20 for YVR at one point, and the metro area would have seen 100 cm of snow before the cold snap got here if its snow maps were accurate. Not expecting much if any snow at lower elevations (under about 150 m) until Wednesday night. If the right factors align, that latter storm might prove our snowiest yet.

[Hawk]

Nice little draw of interior air out ahead of that system on Wednesday night. Gonna be a snowy one. And quite possibly not slop to begin with. Though Thursday looks ugly, sleet, freezing rain and rain

yup i think the LM gets pumbled
Edit: Its getting close to the magical 48 hour mark

[Hawk]

GFS often overdoes the cold. It had -20 for YVR at one point, and the metro area would have seen 100 cm of snow before the cold snap got here if its snow maps were accurate. Not expecting much if any snow at lower elevations (under about 150 m) until Wednesday night. If the right factors align, that latter storm might prove our snowiest yet.

i agree. GFS overdoes cold in mid to long range. Not sure why a human cant adjust the temps closer to climo maxes when these solutions appear tbh. Ahhh computers lol. Although the 44c this June was spot on
When the event is near, the margin of error decreases and temps arent as far off. So we will see. Looks like another nowcast for the next 72 hours or so.

[wetcoast91]

Nice little draw of interior air out ahead of that system on Wednesday night. Gonna be a snowy one. And quite possibly not slop to begin with. Though Thursday looks ugly, sleet, freezing rain and rain

No shortage of moisture with that one:

[Bonovox]

Multiple snow chances on the 12Z GFS this week. Cool.

[Hawk]

Nito...how did it snow 5cm in W Vanc this am?

[Hawk]

Prince Rupert must be on a record setting pace for temps if the cold survives up there for much longer, ever since the cold snap started there
I'm talking recently of course.

[LynnValley]

9cm overnight in Lynn valley. Say that we scored! TorL of 26cm on the ground at my place.

The snow is very wet and heavy. Pain in the backside to shovel !

[VanCitySouth]

I finally beat VanCitySouth, who had been consistently beating me in the snow totals up to this morning.

Yes you finally got a bit more due to more southerly flow. I got super lucky because most of our snow came from northerly flow last week, which is unusual. That might be an extra reason why this cold snap sticks out to me.

[Hawk]

9cm overnight in Lynn valley. Say that we scored! TorL of 26cm on the ground at my place.

The snow is very wet and heavy. Pain in the backside to shovel !

yup..the best we would get would be the tropical snow "warm snow". Better than cold rain!!

[Monty]

Hit 7.3C overnight. About 1/2 our snow melted. Down to 1.2c this morning. Seems so odd to have warmed out of an arctic airmass in the past 24hrs and relieved basically no precip.

[Antares]

Campbell River to Courtenay getting hammered.

[wetcoast91]

Nito...how did it snow 5cm in W Vanc this am?

Rubus mentioned cold daming
Cold air is denser than warm air. SE-S winds bring downsloping warmth to areas closest to the Mountain. Warm air in this instance will displace the colder surface air and "dam" it up against the North Shore with no mechanism to push or erode it.