July 2021 Forecasts And Discussions

[Abby_wx]

Gross. It seems crazy to think we could hit 40C a second time this summer, but I won't discount it.

[SouthSardiswx]

Hope not to Abby sr. end of June was enough for me in a lifetime.

[Antares]

#patternlock

yeah not good for the fires.

But when the cold hammer drops, I think it will really drop this year.

[AbbyJr]

Gross. It seems crazy to think we could hit 40C a second time this summer, but I won't discount it.

If it was the GFS showing it, I would say and ignore it. But when the Euro shows it I start to get concerned.

That said, the Euro is not perfect and wildfire smoke should hopefully keep it cooler than modelled. But nobody wants smoke and 30C+ either.

[Coquitlam79]

If it was the GFS showing it, I would say and ignore it. But when the Euro shows it I start to get concerned.

That said, the Euro is not perfect and wildfire smoke should hopefully keep it cooler than modelled. But nobody wants smoke and 30C+ either.

Ya like August 2017. Would have been a near record heat wave but smoke kept it about 5 celsius cooler at least. Never thought I'd be so happy to see smoke. Bc River forecast center is talking about record low water levels already. What if this continues into September/October (which I think is unlikely)? The pattern has to break eventually and when it does it will be an AR or a rain train pattern maybe just in time for the PNE.

[SouthSardiswx]

yeah not good for the fires.

But when the cold hammer drops, I think it will really drop this year.

It will in the Kootenays Antlerhead you lucky so and so.

[SouthSardiswx]

Ya like August 2017. Would have been a near record heat wave but smoke kept it about 5 celsius cooler at least. Never thought I'd be so happy to see smoke. Bc River forecast center is talking about record low water levels already. What if this continues into September/October (which I think is unlikely)? The pattern has to break eventually and when it does it will be an AR or a rain train pattern maybe just in time for the PNE.

Ah! another marvelous read C79 man, are you thinking tropical moisture will hit us.? the famous P.N.E. curse.

[John]

Ah! another marvelous read C79 man, are you thinking tropical moisture will hit us.?

Lol

[Typeing3]

https://mobile.twitter.com/YVR__Weather ... 1905170435

[Antares]

It will in the Kootenays Antlerhead you lucky so and so.

There of course but I believe it will be the case for the lower mainland as well.

[AbbyJr]

Ya like August 2017. Would have been a near record heat wave but smoke kept it about 5 celsius cooler at least. Never thought I'd be so happy to see smoke. Bc River forecast center is talking about record low water levels already. What if this continues into September/October (which I think is unlikely)? The pattern has to break eventually and when it does it will be an AR or a rain train pattern maybe just in time for the PNE.

The smoke during the August 2017 event was extremely thick. Blocked the sun for the most part and looked like an overcast day. Not sure how much smoke will arrive this time if we do in fact go into an offshore flow. The amount of smoke will likely determine how much cooler we are than modelled, assuming the modelled 500mb pattern verifies.

[PortKells]

Just the Euro run everyone was waiting for...

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-7776000.png

Basically the Saturday of that previous heat wave. Sh*t Sh*t Sh*t

[SouthSardiswx]

Basically the Saturday of that previous heat wave. Sh*t Sh*t Sh*t

If this heat verifies, the models better nail any Arctic blasts come winter.
None of this wishy washy cr*p we usually get from the models.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (6).png

[Coquitlam79]

Ah! another marvelous read C79 man, are you thinking tropical moisture will hit us.? the famous P.N.E. curse.

It's possible it could change by late August. More likely it will be sometime after that in Septmeber or even October but in the past a long dry spell is often followed with something big in terms of rainfall. But it's happened in August before. In 1991 there was an major AR in late August and early September that caused flooding in Sea to Sky. In 2013 a drought was replaced by a very wet pattern for late August and September 2013 was one of the wettest on record. In 2004 a warm dry period (also had a dry spring that year) was quickly replaced by a wet pattern around the 20th of August and lasted through September. In 2010 there was alot of rain in late August and September. Even in the drought of 2015 there was a late August storm that turned creeks and rivers from almost dry trickles to raging torrents in less than 1 day. Extreme weather has been the story around the world this summer in the northern hemisphere. Plus the PNE curse as you said Never say never