September 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 48897?s=20

I mentioned it on the AF this morning, definitely seeing signs of a possibility for a potent system mid week. Probably not your typical windstorm setup. But a deepening low making landfall even around 995-1000mb can produce winds near warning criteria

[Catnip]

Hahaha. Warning..

Wth is going on here with this next trof..geezus. and when is the last time we had a solid Rain to snow event in winter..followed by arctic air for days

Winter 2019/20...... oh wait I’m getting ahead of myself ... sorry Buttie.

[AbbyJr]

I mentioned it on the AF this morning, definitely seeing signs of a possibility for a potent system mid week. Probably not your typical windstorm setup. But a deepening low making landfall even around 995-1000mb can produce winds near warning criteria

I haven't been on the AF's in months. Too much fighting and immaturity.

As for the winds, even if they don't quite reach warning criteria, this time of year there is still foliage on the trees so they are more susceptible to cause power outages.

[Monty]

Its really a disappointment to see a classic arctic blast pattern set up in September/October timeframe.

It’s not uncommon to see in the fall prior to decent winters

[SouthSardiswx]

It’s not uncommon to see in the fall prior to decent winters

Not to worry Jr. It's a practice run, hang on and enjoy the run this winter.

[SouthSardiswx]

Welcome back Ovenpucks.

[SouthSardiswx]

12z showed this nicely. FWIW if this pattern had occurred in Dec/Jan it would likely be a classic rain to snow transition ahead of the arctic front.

fantastic.

[Catnip]

1985! Good analog year.

61241773-5B7F-45EE-B8A0-07C211FC1752.png

This was November 1985.

BB68EF98-5AE2-4FA6-B0E5-DF69A7966A3A.jpeg

[Typeing3]

1985! Good analog year.

This was November 1985.

BB68EF98-5AE2-4FA6-B0E5-DF69A7966A3A.jpeg

Crazy month. Looking back at past november data, only Nov 1896 is relatively similar in matching it in depth and longevity of cold.

[Canada Goose]

21.4 mm so far here.

[Catnip]

21.4 mm so far here.

What do you have for the month so far?

[stuffradio]

Ensemble dropping 850mb temps to ~1C on Friday. EC is forecasting Abbotsford to drop to 6C on Friday.

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Canada Goose]

What do you have for the month so far?

180 mm.

[AbbyJr]

10.4 mm here so far today. 136.3 mm for the month so far.

[Catnip]

Ensemble dropping 850mb temps to ~1C on Friday. EC is forecasting Abbotsford to drop to 6C on Friday.

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

12z slightly colder.

B334FC96-0D85-440B-8243-D2E49A787AB6.png