October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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wetcoast91
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Sort of figured other models would catch up. Thinking 1000ft snow levels. Lumpy rain below that possible.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:27 am Sort of figured other models would catch up. Thinking 1000ft snow levels. Lumpy rain below that possible.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:27 am Sort of figured other models would catch up. Thinking 1000ft snow levels. Lumpy rain below that possible.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Lumpy rain before Halloween in the lowlands. That’s fairly rare. Also, 1000ft snow levels would mean many people in the lower mainland would see sticking snow. This is a good/bad sign for the coming winter.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:06 pm Lumpy rain before Halloween in the lowlands. That’s fairly rare. Also, 1000ft snow levels would mean many people in the lower mainland would see sticking snow. This is a good/bad sign for the coming winter.
2020 will deliver amazing stuff this December.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:13 pm 2020 will deliver amazing stuff this December.
Are you actually thinking December turns cold and snowy?
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:22 pm Are you actually thinking December turns cold and snowy?
Blocky pattern is here to stay. Similar to last winter is my call...This is a good sign for cold as long as you have positive heights over the ocean and 140W.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hughc0rne »

Will snow on Friday be largely dependent on elevation?
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Hughc0rne wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:44 pm Will snow on Friday be largely dependent on elevation?
Yes. Most likely. Not really looking like the cold air will get entrained into the low and hence there will be limited strengthening of the low, so probably not much in the way of dynamic cooling. Just some light to moderate precip over running a chilly fall airmass.
Last edited by Monty on Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:35 pm Blocky pattern is here to stay. Similar to last winter is my call...This is a good sign for cold as long as you have positive heights over the ocean and 140W.
Was last winter blocky. Maybe it was early on? I remember a PV on steroids and mostly a lot of zonal flow across NA.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Monty wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:45 pm Was last winter blocky. Maybe it was early on? I remember a PV on steroids and mostly a lot of zonal flow across NA.
Thats how I remember things. Blocking was fairly anemic unfortunately. Hoping this winter is better, particularly December.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

PortKells wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:48 pm Thats how I remember things. Blocking was fairly anemic unfortunately. Hoping this winter is better, particularly December.
Friend at the Burnaby Vancouver border says there's a bit of a hailstorm moving through
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

PortKells wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 3:48 pm Thats how I remember things. Blocking was fairly anemic unfortunately. Hoping this winter is better, particularly December.
Back in February the polar vortex reached record strength. Last time that happened was in February 1990. December and January 1990/91 was very cold and snowy.

Of course this does not guarantee the same result this upcoming winter but it adds to my confidence that this winter could be cold and snowy. Everything just seems in place. -ENSO/+QB0/ low solar/first year Nina after two back to back Ninos and coming off of a record polar vortex peak in February.

#middleofdecember

:snowman: :snowman: :snowman:
Last edited by AbbyJr on Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:40 pm Back in February the polar vortex reached record strength. Last time that happened was in February 1990. December and January 1990/91 was very cold and snowy.

Of course this does not guarantee that the same result this upcoming winter but it adds to my confidence that this winter could be cold and snowy. Everything just seems in place. -ENSO/+QB0/ low solar/first year Nina after two back to back Ninos and coming off of a record polar vortex peak in February.

#middleofdecember

:snowman: :snowman: :snowman:
I'm feeling theres like a 60% chance of a better than recent average winter. Maybe 10% chance of complete epicness. Thats probably higher than most years.
I'm hoping we get consistently active weather here soon to break down those SSTs heading into winter, we do not need to have things bust because it was a degree too warm coming in off the north pacific. That Sh*t just sucks.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Feels like it might freeze tonight.
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