October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
- wetcoast91
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Sort of figured other models would catch up. Thinking 1000ft snow levels. Lumpy rain below that possible.
- stuffradio
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Your tomatoes are not happy!wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:27 am Sort of figured other models would catch up. Thinking 1000ft snow levels. Lumpy rain below that possible.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Score!wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:27 am Sort of figured other models would catch up. Thinking 1000ft snow levels. Lumpy rain below that possible.
North Burnaby/Burquitlam
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
Elevation - 64 M./210 Feet
- Monty
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Lumpy rain before Halloween in the lowlands. That’s fairly rare. Also, 1000ft snow levels would mean many people in the lower mainland would see sticking snow. This is a good/bad sign for the coming winter.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- wetcoast91
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- Monty
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Are you actually thinking December turns cold and snowy?
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- wetcoast91
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Blocky pattern is here to stay. Similar to last winter is my call...This is a good sign for cold as long as you have positive heights over the ocean and 140W.
- Hughc0rne
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Will snow on Friday be largely dependent on elevation?
East Abbotsford
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Elevation: 550ft
- Monty
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Yes. Most likely. Not really looking like the cold air will get entrained into the low and hence there will be limited strengthening of the low, so probably not much in the way of dynamic cooling. Just some light to moderate precip over running a chilly fall airmass.
Last edited by Monty on Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- Monty
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Was last winter blocky. Maybe it was early on? I remember a PV on steroids and mostly a lot of zonal flow across NA.wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:35 pm Blocky pattern is here to stay. Similar to last winter is my call...This is a good sign for cold as long as you have positive heights over the ocean and 140W.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
- PortKells
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Thats how I remember things. Blocking was fairly anemic unfortunately. Hoping this winter is better, particularly December.
- VanCitySouth
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Friend at the Burnaby Vancouver border says there's a bit of a hailstorm moving through
2024-25 season stats:
Climo 0 to 0 GFS
Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
Climo 0 to 0 GFS
Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
- AbbyJr
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Back in February the polar vortex reached record strength. Last time that happened was in February 1990. December and January 1990/91 was very cold and snowy.
Of course this does not guarantee the same result this upcoming winter but it adds to my confidence that this winter could be cold and snowy. Everything just seems in place. -ENSO/+QB0/ low solar/first year Nina after two back to back Ninos and coming off of a record polar vortex peak in February.
#middleofdecember
Last edited by AbbyJr on Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
50m (164ft)
2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm
- PortKells
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
I'm feeling theres like a 60% chance of a better than recent average winter. Maybe 10% chance of complete epicness. Thats probably higher than most years.AbbyJr wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:40 pm Back in February the polar vortex reached record strength. Last time that happened was in February 1990. December and January 1990/91 was very cold and snowy.
Of course this does not guarantee that the same result this upcoming winter but it adds to my confidence that this winter could be cold and snowy. Everything just seems in place. -ENSO/+QB0/ low solar/first year Nina after two back to back Ninos and coming off of a record polar vortex peak in February.
#middleofdecember
I'm hoping we get consistently active weather here soon to break down those SSTs heading into winter, we do not need to have things bust because it was a degree too warm coming in off the north pacific. That Sh*t just sucks.
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Re: October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions
Feels like it might freeze tonight.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft