September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[stuffradio]

The GEFS and GEPS seem to be the wettest.

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-3826400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-ens_box-3826400.png

cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-3761600.png

Look at those whiskers on the GEFS reaching 120 mm haha

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Models have been pretty consistent over the past week in saying that our rain chances go up significantly once October begins. of course, but also pretty close to climo norms, so more believable than a that calls for a huge departure from such norms.

[stuffradio]

But no snow in Abbotsford

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-snow_35day-6656000.png

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-nw-snow_35day-6656000.png

[Bonovox]

Nova Scotia and PEI still in the cross hairs.

[stuffradio]

Very wet

61B816D0-AA3C-4554-B9BB-7E5F94349813.png

[Bonovox]

The GEM for Ant Man and the rest of PEI.

[AbbyJr]

Nova Scotia and PEI still in the cross hairs.

Imagine if a storm of that magnitude took a track over Central or SW Vancouver Island. While this storm will almost certainly cause widespread damage in the Maritimes, our region is even more vulnerable due to the bigger and taller trees. Just remember back to the August 2015 storm. That caused the most widespread power outage event in BC Hydro history and yet that storm was not nearly as intense as Hurricane Fiona.

While I love storms, I'd be at least somewhat nervous if I lived in Nova Scotia or PEI this weekend.

[stuffradio]

Lots of eye candy today.

ECMWF weeklies agree on snow and also it shows almost 400mm of rain by November 1.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nw-total_precip_mm-7779200.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nw-snow_32day-7260800.png

[Roberts Creeker]

But no snow in Abbotsford

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-snow_35day-6656000.png
gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-nw-snow_35day-6656000.png

You win the 2022-23 trophy cup prize for first mention of snow!

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/Squamishweather/sta ... 4488047621

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 9384577024

https://mobile.twitter.com/MMadryga/sta ... 5699068928

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/s ... 3583592448
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSSeattle/s ... 5267202049

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... 4996537344

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1572725844015198208
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1572729007409631232

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 7593183236

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status ... 2768404480

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 1379657728

https://twitter.com/ChrisScottWx/status ... 5039879168

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 6612031493

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1573102058546565120

[Antares]

Imagine if a storm of that magnitude took a track over Central or SW Vancouver Island. While this storm will almost certainly cause widespread damage in the Maritimes, our region is even more vulnerable due to the bigger and taller trees. Just remember back to the August 2015 storm. That caused the most widespread power outage event in BC Hydro history and yet that storm was not nearly as intense as Hurricane Fiona.

While I love storms, I'd be at least somewhat nervous if I lived in Nova Scotia or PEI this weekend.

yep feeling a little nervous. We'll be fine physically. Just worried about property and structural damage.

Got my storm chips and beers ready to go.

[Canada Goose]

Given the models trend, we can say that Vancouver should have its 5th (maximum 6th) driest and top 15 warmest September on record.
It's one of the driest summer (June 21-Sept. 22) on record. Top 5 for sure (I'll have a look later).

[SouthSardiswx]

yep feeling a little nervous. We'll be fine physically. Just worried about property and structural damage.

Got my storm chips and beers ready to go.

Adding to list Depends, Gumps Vitog special, 1 way ticket to Cranbrook (The boring weather capital of B.C) write book (The last ant man on P.E.I.)

[Bonovox]

yep feeling a little nervous. We'll be fine physically. Just worried about property and structural damage.

Got my storm chips and beers ready to go.

Stay safe, mate.