January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

Seems like a much different set up closer to an overrunning scenario than a stalled arctic front

Overrunning scenario with a cold continental front twist.

[Hawk]

Thanks for another excellent write up. It's sure a treat to get two big updates from you in such short duration.

Just wondering if you are seeing a similarities with this setup to the snowstorm that hit way back on November 26, 2006? I remember that one very well. I was still in high school at the time and I remember it being a surprise storm. Forecast went from chance of flurries to heavy snow with amounts up to 50cm in a very short period. From what I understand, it was a very complex setup and all the models got it all wrong. They didn't pick up on the surface low that formed at the last minute and stalled in the prime spot interacting with an approaching arctic front. A convergence zone formed and some areas saw up to 50cm of snow. Abbotsford recorded 44.1cm in a single 24 hour period. It was the highest daily snowfall total since January 21, 1954 when 49.8cm fell. I remember going out for a walk with my dog and family that day and I said this looks like a storm you would see back east. Just absolutely insane snow rates. I grew up in Prince George and have never seen such rapid snow accumulations.

It's probably a stretch to suggest those extreme totals will be recorded this time around but just curious your thoughts on how the two compare.

And imagine of all places..the Similkameeeens scored about 60cm in 24 hours in December around 3-4 years ago. Does anyone remember my post about that. Insane accumualtions for that area. A normal snowfall there is like 3-5cms..maybe 10cms on a good day...Rare to see 15cms tbh.

[AbbyJr]

Seems like a much different set up closer to an overrunning scenario than a stalled arctic front

I wouldn't call this an overrunning event, at least not by my criteria. For me, an overrunning event is when the heavy snow changes to freezing rain and then to rain. This looks like a heavy snowfall with a fresh reload of modified arctic air. Temperatures will warm but probably remain below freezing for around 24 hours after the snowfall. At least according to most models, which keep most areas below freezing through Thursday with the warmup delayed until Friday. Even at that, it's more of a slow warming than a rapid spike in temperatures.

[PortKells]

This has happened many times in East Surrey where the accumulation exceeded the forecast. I'm really curious this time round considering how good the models look right now. Usually in this situation, we score well in my area as well as Guildford and Langley Clayton area.

Yep check out the hrdps. Once again during a big snowfall, our little region looks to be in the bullseye. Some sort of convergence zone sets up between Fraser outflow and onshore flow without too much mountain or southerly influence.

62B9D0CD-E23F-4C5C-AA36-F8ECB40763CE.png

[WeatherPro]

Thanks for another excellent write up. It's sure a treat to get two big updates from you in such short duration.

Just wondering if you are seeing a similarities with this setup to the snowstorm that hit way back on November 26, 2006? I remember that one very well. I was still in high school at the time and I remember it being a surprise storm. Forecast went from chance of flurries to heavy snow with amounts up to 50cm in a very short period. From what I understand, it was a very complex setup and all the models got it all wrong. They didn't pick up on the surface low that formed at the last minute and stalled in the prime spot interacting with an approaching arctic front. A convergence zone formed and some areas saw up to 50cm of snow. Abbotsford recorded 44.1cm in a single 24 hour period. It was the highest daily snowfall total since January 21, 1954 when 49.8cm fell. I remember going out for a walk with my dog and family that day and I said this looks like a storm you would see back east. Just absolutely insane snow rates. I grew up in Prince George and have never seen such rapid snow accumulations.

It's probably a stretch to suggest those extreme totals will be recorded this time around but just curious your thoughts on how the two compare.

Wow. Well, I don't recall the storm specifics you are talking about. Was that the one the military were called in to rescue people in the fraser valley?

I don't see a real similarity in the even you outline compared to tomorrows. Amounts are similar, but dynamics different. But as you mentioned, that situation literally exploded from nothing into something big. Rare. Could it happen again? Yes. This week? I don't think so. But I can't rule out any surprises because this IS a slightly better than normal looking setup. NOW, if for some reason any situation like a convergence zone or surface low developed out of this weeks system, then you would be looking at a duplicate if not MORE than the situation that occurred in 2006.

[AbbyJr]

Wow. Well, I don't recall the storm specifics you are talking about. Was that the one the military were called in to rescue people in the fraser valley?

I don't see a real similarity in the even you outline compared to tomorrows. Amounts are similar, but dynamics different. But as you mentioned, that situation literally exploded from nothing into something big. Rare. Could it happen again? Yes. This week? I don't think so. But I can't rule out any surprises because this IS a slightly better than normal looking setup. NOW, if for some reason any situation like a convergence zone or surface low developed out of this weeks system, then you would be looking at a duplicate if not MORE than the situation that occurred in 2006.

Thanks for your insights.

I don't remember if they called in the military for the 2006 snowstorm but I know they did for the December 1996 blizzard.

[AbbyJr]

No terrain bleed on the high resolution model.

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5528800.png

[Catnip]

Icon Thursday 4am.png

[Catnip]

[Hound]

Yep check out the hrdps. Once again during a big snowfall, our little region looks to be in the bullseye. Some sort of convergence zone sets up between Fraser outflow and onshore flow without too much mountain or southerly influence.

62B9D0CD-E23F-4C5C-AA36-F8ECB40763CE.png

Very interesting. I really want to figure this out. I don't think I've ever heard anyone tackle this on a pro level.

[PortKells]

Icon Thursday 4am.png

Lemme help you with that

0E4F41A1-92BC-48BE-8312-6D1C18253BAA.png

[PortKells]

Very interesting. I really want to figure this out. I don't think I've ever heard anyone tackle this on a pro level.

But I thought we..were the...pros?

[WeatherPro]

Lemme help you with that

0E4F41A1-92BC-48BE-8312-6D1C18253BAA.png

Approved.png

[PortKells]

Very interesting. I really want to figure this out. I don't think I've ever heard anyone tackle this on a pro level.

I think that even within this little micro climate, up top this little hill I’m on is absolutely killer. It just dumps. I think Hawk is the same. That also applies to rain as well.

[Hound]

But I thought we..were the...pros?

We are pretty Pro, but for this situation, we are not.
(Why we are in a mini snow belt)