January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[WeatherPro]

2cm of slush followed by in the belt!

Just kidding. Looks like 20cm could be in reach.

I had to look up why you stated this. Pitt Meadows? Maple Ridge?
Pitt Meadows is an anomaly for some reason, often warms too quick there or the cold air doesn't stay. The dynamics of this area is intriguing, I wish I knew more. However, in this case, you WILL get snow, so no worries. When the warmup begins though, then your area may be as soon as Richmond or slightly after. 20 - 25cm for you Tues/Wed.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

And may it happen a few more times in the 20s. Starting with January 2024! (j/k it's not happening but #BeginningofFeb?)

Dec 2021, Dec 2022, Feb 2023. 20+ cm snowfall already happened three times in the 2020's IMBY (and yours too).

[AbbyJr]

Definitely an outside chance of 30+ over here. I personally think its trending towards 20+ for you guys. And even Richmond will get in the teens IMO.

Agreed. There is definitely a chance that some inland regions could exceed 30cm. But for now a safer forecast would be 20-30cm.

[Hawk]

This has happened many times in East Surrey where the accumulation exceeded the forecast. I'm really curious this time round considering how good the models look right now. Usually in this situation, we score well in my area as well as Guildford and Langley Clayton area.

Dont forget HawksHill too...the Snowbelt of the western valley
Often scores the biggest snow totals other than Monty and Catnip in many events

[VanCitySouth]

Dec 2021, Dec 2022, Feb 2023. 20+ cm snowfall already happened three times in the 2020's IMBY (and yours too).

Oh, well, yes. Hound was talking about 30+ in one go at YVR and I was continuing that thought though.

[Hound]

Something odd in this area for sure considering Pitt Meadows in almost directly North of me, and we smoke that area in terms of snowfall. I thought it was a Northerly wind coming down Pitt River that gave my area an advantage, but then shouldn't that give Pitt Meadows a cooler temp with air being sucked down from Pitt Lake? I've always tried to figure it out but I have no idea.

[wetcoast91]

I had to look up why you stated this. Pitt Meadows? Maple Ridge?
Pitt Meadows is an anomaly for some reason, often warms too quick there or the cold air doesn't stay. The dynamics of this area is intriguing, I wish I knew more. However, in this case, you WILL get snow, so no worries. When the warmup begins though, then your area may be as soon as Richmond or slightly after. 20 - 25cm for you Tues/Wed.

Legend says a train carrying bananas and pineapples lost their load in the early 1900s. Their remains were strewn around the corridor. Today the husks and preserved peels are said to haunt snow lovers who move into their areas.

I think this is the most logical explanation.

[Catnip]

Here’s my prediction:

FEETZ

[AbbyJr]

SNOWFALL WARNING!!

I'm issuing the snowfall warning now because even with the least likely scenario, there is going to be enough snow to cause problems everywhere.

EC will issue the snowfall warning after analyzing the recent runs from tonight, and will issue tonight or first thing in the morning. The CORRECT thing to do is issue it TONIGHT so people go to work Tues prepared if they are coming home late. Especially if light snow starts in the late afternoon because we will get a repeat of what happened on Thursday and you see what little snow did to cause problems. Now the ground is even MORE frozen, so any melting on the roads will be turned to ice.

Model runs today so far actually IMPROVED the snow forecast, so it keeps trending in the right direction for snow lovers.

Light snow could develop tomorrow late afternoon before changing to steady snow in the evening and continuing Wednesday with heavy snow. Snow will continue Wed and possibly until Thursday morning the further east and higher up you are. This is what it looks like if things go in the right direction. At this point the right direction is at a higher percentage.

Watch any models tonight.

Widespread snowfall!
Snow will blanket the entire lower corner of BC from the island to the fraser valley.
Snowfall amounts will range anywhere from 5cm at ocean level Tsawwassen, and I mean RIGHT at or on the ocean, to 30cm inland around Abbotsford to Hope. Variable amounts depending on elevation. Burnaby mountain 20 - 30cm. Other areas like Coquitlam and Surrey 20 - 25cm and Vancouver up to 15 to 20cm. Richmond up to 10 to 15cm.

Overall this system may actually over-perform in some areas. As it seems to be heading in that direction.

Now, could this bust? Well it is coastal Lower Mainland, the hardest place in Canada to forecast snow, so there is always a percentage. HOWEVER, if this busts, it will only be in terms of accumulation. So rather than the higher amounts I stated, you might cut them in half. Still not bad for some areas.

Blizzard? Not really. Perhaps Chilliwack and east will see blizzard like conditions where the wind is still blowing, but the outflow has died off for Metro Vancouver proper. Mind you, the snow will start off extremely dry, so it wont take much to blow around and I suspect with the front passing there will be some wind. We shall see if the outflow gets dragged out west a bit.

So many variables.

Thursday afternoon may see freezing rain, but it's not clear yet exactly if and where that transition will be. Of course the Fraser valley has the highest chances of persistent freezing rain Thursday into the evening. Overnight? Friday? Will temps cool a bit again?

I suspect there will be snow cover on the ground for quite a while after this dump.

Cold air reload, looks possible on some models. Or at least keeping a cool trend. Although things may moderate over the weekend.

A lot going on, many dynamics. No forecaster will get this bang on, but the ballpark is pretty good right now.
A major widespread snowfall is coming starting tomorrow. Enjoy it!
Don't go out on the roads. Work from home. Don't get caught on the bridges for 6 hours.

Thanks for another excellent write up. It's sure a treat to get two big updates from you in such short duration.

Just wondering if you are seeing a similarities with this setup to the snowstorm that hit way back on November 26, 2006? I remember that one very well. I was still in high school at the time and I remember it being a surprise storm. Forecast went from chance of flurries to heavy snow with amounts up to 50cm in a very short period. From what I understand, it was a very complex setup and all the models got it all wrong. They didn't pick up on the surface low that formed at the last minute and stalled in the prime spot interacting with an approaching arctic front. A convergence zone formed and some areas saw up to 50cm of snow. Abbotsford recorded 44.1cm in a single 24 hour period. It was the highest daily snowfall total since January 21, 1954 when 49.8cm fell. I remember going out for a walk with my dog and family that day and I said this looks like a storm you would see back east. Just absolutely insane snow rates. I grew up in Prince George and have never seen such rapid snow accumulations.

It's probably a stretch to suggest those extreme totals will be recorded this time around but just curious your thoughts on how the two compare.

[WeatherPro]

OK....rubes...

Will this impact flight at YVR? My wife is supposed to fly to Europe Thursday afternoon...?

And I'm supposed to fly to Calgary from Abby Thursday night

You need to watch conditions very close. Perhaps stay the night at a hotel very close to the airports. Mind you, the airports/planes could have trouble deicing, but getting there is usually the worst part.

[Bc_trucker]

Something odd in this area for sure considering Pitt Meadows in almost directly North of me, and we smoke that area in terms of snowfall. I thought it was a Northerly wind coming down Pitt River that gave my area an advantage, but then shouldn't that give Pitt Meadows a cooler temp with air being sucked down from Pitt Lake? I've always tried to figure it out but I have no idea.

I think you're right...it's my guess as well that it has something to so with the Pitt River/Pitt Lake. It for sure has an impact on the weather there.

[Hawk]

Something odd in this area for sure considering Pitt Meadows in almost directly North of me, and we smoke that area in terms of snowfall. I thought it was a Northerly wind coming down Pitt River that gave my area an advantage, but then shouldn't that give Pitt Meadows a cooler temp with air being sucked down from Pitt Lake? I've always tried to figure it out but I have no idea.

I believe it is because there is no compressional cooling(probably the wrong words to describe it..but whatever). Air descends from most areas into the "Pitt", kinda like a mini Chinook..and it often is raining there at 0c where the southern hills at 100m may still be getting snow at the same temp due to compressional cooling. Like Squamish..air forced into the Sound causes it to cool off and they get pumbled with snow many times when Metro is getting cold rain. Or Kennedy lake on the island. Sow levels everywhere at 800m+ and they are getting crushed with snow at 300m. I dunno..just my rookie thoughts. Nito? Monty?

[VanCitySouth]

Legend says a train carrying bananas and pineapples lost their load in the early 1900s. Their remains were strewn around the corridor. Today the husks and preserved peels are said to haunt snow lovers who move into their areas.

I think this is the most logical explanation.

Side note, Nito, I would genuinely like to hear your actual (non-pineapple-meme) thoughts about Tues night-Wed and, if they differ from Weatherpro, how and why.

[PortKells]

Thanks for another excellent write up. It's sure a treat to get two big updates from you in such short duration.

Just wondering if you are seeing a similarities with this setup to the snowstorm that hit way back on November 26, 2006? I remember that one very well. I was still in high school at the time and I remember it being a surprise storm. Forecast went from chance of flurries to heavy snow with amounts up to 50cm in a very short period. From what I understand, it was a very complex setup and all the models got it all wrong. They didn't pick up on the surface low that formed at the last minute and stalled in the prime spot interacting with an approaching arctic front. A convergence zone formed and some areas saw up to 50cm of snow. Abbotsford recorded 44.1cm in a single 24 hour period. It was the highest daily snowfall total since January 21, 1954 when 49.8cm fell. I remember going out for a walk with my dog and family that day and I said this looks like a storm you would see back east. Just absolutely insane snow rates. I grew up in Prince George and have never seen such rapid snow accumulations.

It's probably a stretch to suggest those extreme totals will be recorded this time around but just curious your thoughts on how the two compare.

Seems like a much different set up closer to an overrunning scenario than a stalled arctic front

[Bc_trucker]

You need to watch conditions very close. Perhaps stay the night at a hotel very close to the airports. Mind you, the airports/planes could have trouble deicing, but getting there is usually the worst part.

I'll try not to hit any bridges on the way out there
Will see how it goes, not afraid of the snow, I'm afraid of the Richmond drivers...