November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[tyweather]

Cant make snow either with the ridiculously high freezing levels coming.

Buying a ski pass during a super El Nino winter is generally not a good idea.

I bought my pass in February last year already. I wish I got the pass insurance at least. Dooh.

[SouthSardiswx]

I bought my pass in February last year already. I wish I got the pass insurance at least. Dooh.

Perhaps you'll get some snow in the Hoof Ty my man if your heading there for Christmas again. we reached a high of 12c today @ the pond in south Sardis.

[Typeing3]

https://youtu.be/_dXYrpP9sqU?si=Bi6Jv1O0sCi_ryTR

^Old news coverage of the blizzard of '96. David Jones makes a couple appearances around 7:25 and 19:25.

[SouthSardiswx]

https://youtu.be/_dXYrpP9sqU?si=Bi6Jv1O0sCi_ryTR

^Old news coverage of the blizzard of '96. David Jones makes a couple appearances around 7:25 and 19:25.

Kool Ttube David Jones was awesome E.C. had some great personalities for T.V. appearances, now they seem like kids that can't explain properly.
What's this liquid falling from the sky. it's currently 8c and raining @ the pond in south Sardis.

[SouthSardiswx]

Welcome back Feetzzzzz, although they probably won't help this winter unfortunately just having them around and the smell brings back memories of what once was. 2.5mm of rain so far in the pond in south Sardis since midnight.

[Catnip]

The latest run of the FS monthly says everyone gets in on the below average fun in February.

cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202402_1.png

[Catnip]

#ridgecity #dry

dry.png

[AbbyJr]

While I may be biased, I still think we see at least some cold and snow in December. But while I don’t typically trust the models beyond 5 days, I have to admit that the long range solutions don’t look promising unless you want a warm and dry December.

[Typeing3]

While I may be biased, I still think we see at least some cold and snow in December. But while I don’t typically trust the models beyond 5 days, I have to admit that the long range solutions don’t look promising unless you want a warm and dry December.

It's an El Nino winter... best to go into them with no expectations.

[Monty]

While I may be biased, I still think we see at least some cold and snow in December. But while I don’t typically trust the models beyond 5 days, I have to admit that the long range solutions don’t look promising unless you want a warm and dry December.

I’d say the first couple weeks of December are likely a lost cause. The El Niño window of December 25-January 20 is likely out best bet this winter. There almost has to be some type of more consolidated jet activity in December.

[wetcoast91]

I’d say the first couple weeks of December are likely a lost cause. The El Niño window of December 25-January 20 is likely out best bet this winter. There almost has to be some type of more consolidated jet activity in December.

I wish I were that optimistic. That BC ridge is looking to be a semi-permanent feature this period. Something tells me we are in for a rather historic winter drought. Early next month is where I suspect a prolonged trough will impact the Eastern 2/3 of the country...but dry will be the story here for the DJF period...

[Typeing3]

I wish I were that optimistic. That BC ridge is looking to be a semi-permanent feature this period. Something tells me we are in for a rather historic winter drought. Early next month is where I suspect a prolonged trough will impact the Eastern 2/3 of the country...but dry will be the story here for the DJF period...

1976-77 + 2014-15 repeat?

[Coquitlam79]

I wish I were that optimistic. That BC ridge is looking to be a semi-permanent feature this period. Something tells me we are in for a rather historic winter drought. Early next month is where I suspect a prolonged trough will impact the Eastern 2/3 of the country...but dry will be the story here for the DJF period...

It will be interesting to see if Callifornia gets their expected El Nino driven-rain train starting in the new year. As for around here, 2000-2001 was the most "ridgy" Fall and Winter I can remember and that wasn't even an El Nino so who knows? I'm guessing a mostly ridge/split flow pattern. Not totally dry of course but for sure drier than normal.

[AbbyJr]

I wish I were that optimistic. That BC ridge is looking to be a semi-permanent feature this period. Something tells me we are in for a rather historic winter drought. Early next month is where I suspect a prolonged trough will impact the Eastern 2/3 of the country...but dry will be the story here for the DJF period...

My opinion is that we just have no way of knowing how dominant the BC ridge will be this winter. But a dominant BC ridge is common during El Niño. That said, there have been exceptions to that especially when there is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Both 1965/66 and 1968/69 had one early in the season. That may have been a key reason those El Niños performed so well. The 2018/19 winter had a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January and then the whole El Niño pattern flipped in February and we saw a prolonged arctic blast. Of course it doesn’t work out for us every time but it’s often the best chance of overtaking the dominant El Niño pattern.

[SouthSardiswx]

Hey y’all, you seem like a depressed bunch about this winter chances let me remind you it is only November the winter has to start yet!
anything is possible so far we’ve had a very nice fall with the odd, heavy rain many nice sunny days and mostly on the cool side Nothing to worry about at this point !!
Cheers

I'm only depressed when the Canhackers loose John then l get over it.