September 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

GFS/GEFS and GEM/GEPS are showing signs of rain at 20-40mm between now and beginning of October.

gfs-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-3567200.png
gfs-deterministic-CYXX-tmp_qpf_snow-3588800.png
gem-all-CYXX-tmp_qpf_snow-3588800.png
cmc-ensemble-all-CYXX-ens_box-3545600.png

That would be it for fire season this year, so let’s hope it comes.

[Hawk]

The torchy spells are now below 30ËšC, so at least there is that.

Went out looking for mushrooms near Stave Lake yesterday. Saw virtually none of any kind, even though the forest floor was not totally dry. Either it’s too early, or it’s going to be a dud season, or both. (And yes, I have found chanterelles in September before, many times.)

Far too dry MushroomMan

[Bear Golden]

Far too dry MushroomMan

This was September last year PLEAAAASSSE Give us some rain! (I can't believe I'm saying that)

1.jpg

2.jpg

3.jpg

[Canada Goose]

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/stat ... zC6RZPbCqA

[Roberts Creeker]

This was September last year PLEAAAASSSE Give us some rain! (I can't believe I'm saying that)

Impressive!!! Don't worry you'll get your wish...and then you'll wish it would stop.

What are those yellow ones? I'm hoping for some oyster mushrooms, some of my dead alders sprout them.

[SouthSardiswx]

This was September last year PLEAAAASSSE Give us some rain! (I can't believe I'm saying that)

Outstanding seeing the man with the golden paw back for another season of ridiculously resilient no snow events
It got up to 27c @ the pond in south Sardis under sunny skies.
Wasn't September early October 2020 nice like this l recall shorts weather into October.

[Hawk]

Impressive!!! Don't worry you'll get your wish...and then you'll wish it would stop.

What are those yellow ones? I'm hoping for some oyster mushrooms, some of my dead alders sprout them.

Chanterelles. The best eva

[SouthSardiswx]

Temperatures the final straw
these are the antics of Corporal Goose
His 1 year mission
To calibrate inaccurate stations
To seek out new locations
To bodly go where no weather geek has gone before
It's currently 17c @ the pond in south Sardis

[Roberts Creeker]

Chanterelles. The best eva

Ah, thank you. I'm too chicken to eat any other than oysters but I'll keep my eyes open for them.

[Roberts Creeker]

Temperatures the final straw
these are the antics of Corporal Goose
His 1 year mission
To calibrate inaccurate stations
To seek out new locations
To bodly go where no weather geek has gone before
It's currently 17c @ the pond in south Sardis

ST: Strange New Worlds is the best of the new ones imo.

[Typeing3]

ST: Strange New Worlds is the best of the new ones imo.

Speaking of Star Trek, I just saw a two-parter ("Gambit") from season 7 of TNG earlier yesterday evening. Saw all the episodes way back but there were so many to remember too much.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (23).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (24).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (25).png

[Typeing3]

20220920093024-71a1a3a66000322c9e719259a3c436743af15281.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Weird seems everytime l look at these graphs Tea the precip keeps getting pushed ahead, kinda like in wiinter cold/snow oh well eventually the day's will get caught up to the precip, it can run but it can't hide.
We have the forecasted NE outflow in the central valley now definitely keeping temps up this morning.
It's 16c @ the pond in south Sardis NE occasionally gusting to 30kmh.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Pretty likely we’re in for some torching followed by a crash in temperatures. Beyond that is territory, but a that calls for what is basically climo norms is always more believable (and likely to verify) than one that calls for a big departure from norms.