January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

18z Drunkle does appear to be on it's own.

Looks like 4 or 5 members drop below -10

[Bonovox]

For an ensemble mean, that looks pretty good.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah right 18Z GFS but nice try... thank you clowns for entertaining us.

That said, putting the ridiculously silly clown range GFS runs aside, I do think there is solid evidence in the models for at least several sub freezing days and possible low elevation snows in mid January. But there will likely be a model collapse as we near the event as usual and then models will go back to showing cold. It wouldn't be a model ride without the classic rug pull.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-5233600.png

[John]

Yeah right 18Z GFS but nice try... thank you clowns for entertaining us.

That said, putting the ridiculously silly clown range GFS runs aside, I do think there is solid evidence in the models for at least several sub freezing days and possible low elevation snows in mid January. But there will likely be a model collapse as we near the event as usual and then models will go back to showing cold. It wouldn't be a model ride without the classic rug pull.


gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c-5233600.png

That’s legit cold bro

[Monty]

For an ensemble mean, that looks pretty good.

About as good as it gets at this range. I like that we have northerly flow along the coast with the trough centered to our east. It’s going to be, as usual, any shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge and digging back into the block that are the most likely to bring us the real arctic air and snow.

[stuffradio]

The 18Z is crazy. Here's another map here

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYXX-indiv_snow-4067200.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The 18Z is crazy. Here's another map here
gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYXX-indiv_snow-4067200.png

For YVR:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-CYVR-indiv_snow-4067200.png

[Storm]

GEM

[wetcoast91]

Most likely scenario shaping up on the models. Glancing blow with a pattern change that delivers a quick blast of low elevation snows followed by a coolish pattern with the cold air eventually sliding into the midwest and eastern US.

Could get some before that ridge develops overhead and caps in some low level cold air. Not ideal for the ski resorts though.

[AbbyJr]

Clown range snowstorm on the 00Z GEM

gem-all-vancouverski-snow_24hr_cm-4888000.png

[John]

Clown range snowstorm on the 00Z GEM


gem-all-vancouverski-snow_24hr_cm-4888000.png

Not really clown range

[AbbyJr]

Not really clown range

When it comes to snowfall here, I consider anything more than 48 hours out to be clown range.

[AbbyJr]

Most likely scenario shaping up on the models. Glancing blow with a pattern change that delivers a quick blast of low elevation snows followed by a coolish pattern with the cold air eventually sliding into the midwest and eastern US.

Could get some before that ridge develops overhead and caps in some low level cold air. Not ideal for the ski resorts though.

Very reasonable forecast at this point.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

AF having a lot of fun with this.

1120246.png.e1ad6ddfd198eb4332b35e5795e309b4.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Not really clown range

Only nine days out! Basically a lock!