May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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SouthSardiswx
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Glacier wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 5:37 pm Snow melt. It's been dry... so far. Whiteman Creek has come down now, but when the rain comes it will go up again. It probably won't rise as high as it was yesterday, which was a new all time record.

The median date for peak flow is May 18th. The earliest peak on record was March 31st, 2015. The latest was June 13th, 1990.

whitemancreek4.png

Also, here is an interesting question for you, which river is larger in terms of peak flow, the Liard for Fraser? And which peaks first? The answer to both questions is they are exactly the same. They both peak on June 13th.

The earliest peak for the Fraser was May 1st, 1934. For the Liard the earliest was May 8th (in both 1951 and 1989)

The latest peak for the Fraser was July 23rd, 2001. For the Liard it was September 5th, 2016.

liard.png

fraserxs.png
Glace are you in need of rescue, l see Cache Creek is flooded out. I don't get it they know it's coming almost every year and nothing is done Cache Creek that runs through town by the Husky truck stop is the culprit. Divert it raise the bank build an over pass now look more money costs in damages what a waste. :roll:
Last edited by SouthSardiswx on Thu May 04, 2023 6:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Glacier »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 8:10 pm Glace are you in need of rescue, l see Cache Creek is flooded out. I don't get it they know it's coming almost every year and nothing is done Cache Creek that runs through town by the Husky truck stop is the culprit divert it raise the bank build an over pass now look more money costs in damages what a waste. :roll:
The province is so dumb. They have no money to spend in the interior on roads and infrastructure. They recently canceled the Quesnel bypass that was supposed to be built this year. Every town has a traffic light or 13. 113 on Highway 97 to be exact. No overpasses except for a few lucky spots that were built back in the 80s or places they got so bad they had no choice but to put one in.

My brother is a highways manager in the central interior and he says that the province has pulled the rug on his maintenance projects. In one case there is a collapsed culvert so there's a hole in the middle of the road where the culvert is caved in. The province says they don't have money to fix it this year so they just put up a flag so no one drives in the middle of the road. Another project has the road sloughing into the lake. They were supposed to shore up the bank and fix the road this year, but the province has no money for that either. It's already down to a lane and a half wide.
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Ah man, Glace that's absolutely nuts thanks for the info. isn't it a dog and pony trick you hear about the projects there working on but the smaller ones that get neglected are just as important to local residents what a sham.
Pisses me off now we have to hear about flood warnings and then massive wild fires then extreme drought then water shortages year after year what a joke.
Last edited by SouthSardiswx on Thu May 04, 2023 6:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

NDP
:roll:
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

This can't be good for next winter. :sick:

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-stage-str ... -late.html
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

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20230504132344-87add38ee066502371d70b5550bcf64e1e8496f2.png
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Typeing3 wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 6:25 am 00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (3).png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (4).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (5).png
Yikes! Teeman hot and muggy that's not good perhaps Tstorms this time.
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 1:57 am This can't be good for next winter. :sick:

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-stage-str ... -late.html
Maybe the El Nino will be so strong that it forces a couple feet of snow on us :D

May the 4th be with everyone :)
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Hawk wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:23 pm NDP
:roll:
No
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Record setting flows this year draining out of the White Rock Lake fire area....
flowwhiteman.png
screen_shot_2023-05-03_at_12.35.34_pm_p3682815.jpg
344119369_2403418613169365_3961536447195534406_n_p3682655.jpg
344552478_122657427445336_3536574618063031482_n_p3683064.jpg
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

stuffradio wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 7:56 am Maybe the El Nino will be so strong that it forces a couple feet of snow on us :D

May the 4th be with everyone :)
And also with you...amen

A "Super" Nino..that actually does this. That would be so cool :thumbup:
Although Nino AR's do tend to send a lot of precip over the top and into the Similkameens. There have been some pretty rainy/snowy winters there. Peaks usually get buried with lots of snow though. Makes for an epic sledding season buttees :clap: and 8-)
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by moonshadow0825 »

Glacier wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 12:46 pm
Record setting flows this year draining out of the White Rock Lake fire area....
based on your photos the cleanup for this must be never ending. better than losing your property but it seems to add insult to injury

thanks for sharing and hope you are safe

No
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Projects
as someone close to the ever aging, always backed up and occasionally leaking tunnel, I get that. even HY Louie threatening to move their head office and distribution from Tilbury to Alberta got nothing more than vague promises.
:wsnow: :13snow:

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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by walthz »

SouthSardiswx wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 1:57 am This can't be good for next winter. :sick:

https://phys.org/news/2023-05-stage-str ... -late.html
I don't know what special model spice they are using but I recently saw some trend charts with the model spreads over the last few years and the current trend looks an awful lot like it's going to *max much lower than the last peak... time will tell.
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Re: May 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Leighbugs »

Lots of lightning just north of me. Of course it just missed us. :roll:
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