February 2021 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

No sign of Nito’s inversion in the models.

#winning.

Tell em Monty!

C'MON!

[Bonovox]

[tyweather]

FZFG, freezing fog. Freezing rain would be FZRA.

Looks like I did a relatively good job at decoding the secret code.

[Catnip]

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

[Nimbus]

Seems like this pattern is always 10 days away!

[wetcoast91]

No sign of Nito’s inversion in the models.

#winning.

Lots of warm advection light rain and drizzle until the weekend through.

Is that really winning?

[PortKells]

Sigh...lol. 10 days away.

[Nimbus]

What do these codes mean?

KJFK 011551Z 03020G28KT 1/4SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2984 RMK AO2 PK WND 03033/1537 SLP105 SNINCR 1/7 P0005 T10171028 $

R04R - runway visual range, in this case varying from 1400 to 2400 feet
A2984 - altimeter setting in inches
A02 is 'automated station with precipitation discriminator'
PK Wind is obvious the time of the gust is 1537z
SLP - sea level pressure 105=1010.5 mb
SNINCR - snow increments 1 is past hour, 7 is snow on the ground
P0005 - precipitation i.e. rain and melted snow in past hour
T group - found this on google:
The "0" after the "T" indicates that the temperature and dew point are higher than 0 degrees Celsius (a "1" will follow the "T" when the dew point temperature and /or the temperature is / are less than 0 degrees Celsius) so looks like temp minus 1.7, dp minus 2.8 on the ob
Hope this helps!

[Monty]

Lots of warm advection light rain and drizzle until the weekend through.

Is that really winning?

Doesn’t look too bad. But I’m sure it’ll be drier over here than on the mainland

[Catnip]

1.jpg

[Antares]

1.jpg

I don't buy it, nor what Brett Anderson just put out (since he essentially goes off what the models show).

Hope I'm wrong though...

[Typeing3]

C'MON #teamdry! Enough of this rain already.

[John]

gfs-vancouver-ca-49n-123(1).jpeg

Still quite a few dropping cold down by next weekend can’t completely discount that yet.

[AbbyJr]

Okay so I now officially accept defeat. I honestly thought the EPS would remain solid. But it's now warming significantly.

Looks like winter is cancelled unfortunately. It's going to take an unexpected miracle to see any meaningful cold and snow.

Very disappointing winter. I have to admit, I don't remember the last time the long made models performed this bad.

It's likely partially due to the poor long range resolution that caused the models to initially show the arctic air getting into SW BC but then as resolution increases, the models slide the cold east.

Not what was expected in a -ENSO/+QBO but consistent with climo.

I will end this post with the following:

[VanCitySouth]

I don't remember the last time the long made models performed this bad.

I read somewhere that a big cause this year is a lack of valuable observations from commercial flights across the Pacific due to Covid, making the already sparse data points even fewer and farther between. The less accurate the initial obs, the less accurate the output; or, to be succinct, GIGO.