Covid Pandemic

[John]

I honestly didn't know that. I would've assumed favoring the business side of things so my bad for assuming. I'll post the numbers in a bit, lower case numbers today are encouraging.

Things are heading in the right direction hopefully Bonnie will loosen some of the tough rules soon

[PortKells]

Dec 8th Covid-19 Update - Dr. Bonnie Henry says there are 566 new cases, total now of 38,718; 352 (+3) hospitalized of which 74 (-3) are in ICU; 9,315 (-65) active cases; 27,897 (+610) recovered; 16 additional deaths, total now of 543
97 (+8) currently hospitalized in the Vancouver Coastal Health region

188 (-5) currently hospitalized in the Fraser Health region
17 (+3) currently hospitalized in the Interior Health region
9 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Island Health region
41 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Northern Health region
15 (-1) currently in critical care in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
39 (-1) currently in critical care in the Fraser Health region
4 (+0) currently in critical care in the Interior Health region
4 (+0) currently in critical care in the Island Health region
12 (-1) currently in critical care in the Northern Health region

566 new cases / 6,943 tests = ~ 8.2 % positivity rate (Province)
136 new cases / 1,667 tests = ~ 8.2 % positivity rate (Vancouver Coastal Health Region)
297 new cases / 3,548 tests = ~ 8.4 % positivity rate (Fraser Health Region)


Per reddit:
"Today’s 566 new cases are part of a new trend. Growth is slowing.

The seven day trailing average is down to 689 per day.

The seven day trailing count is down to 4,824 and remains below 5,000 which was above Nov 23 to Dec 3. Indeed we are equaling the Nov 22 value.

The incidence value per 100,000 person-years is 5,194. Slightly down. Incidence based on 14 day count. Until this majorly declines we will have restrictions.

The time to double the total case count, as measured over last five days only, climbed to 40 days. This is a nice change but a good value is 60 days and a great value is over 100.

The time to double daily new case count as measured since Oct 1 to Nov 27 roughly 18 day. The new cases since Nov 27 half every 30 days. We want this to be faster but the trend is good.

Data for last 11 days looks different than data from Oct 1 to Nov 27. There is a decline new cases per day halving every 30 days. The trend is clear but the deceleration is slow."

The Rt values are consistent with this deceleration.

[Glacier]

The last time I updated this chart (in October) Manitoba was at 20. It's now at over 300. Still, like all the iterations of the map everyone in Canada is below the Canadian average except Quebec.

coviddeathsNADec9.png

[PortKells]

Thanks for the update Glacier. Canada has had an better time than the USA for sure, but still not easy at all. The USA exceeded 3000 deaths today for the first time. I hope its not going to be as bad as I think it is.

Today was a....Good day?! Look at the Island cases, only 5 new.

Dec 9th Covid-19 Update - Dr. Bonnie Henry says there are 619 new cases, total now of 39,337; 338 (-14) hospitalized of which 75 (+1) are in ICU; 9,329 (+14) active cases; 28448 (+551) recovered; 16 additional deaths, total now of 559

11526 people who are under active public health monitoring as a result of identified exposure to known cases
9982 (+121) cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
24942 (+384) cases in the Fraser Health region
2420 (+81) cases in the Interior Health region
740 (+5) cases in the Island Health region
1159 (+27) cases in the Northern Health region
94 (+1) cases of people who reside outside of Canada

1220 (+7) active cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
6913 (-11) active cases in the Fraser Health region
656 (+20) active cases in the Interior Health region
158 (-49) active cases in the Island Health region
378 (+46) active cases in the Northern Health region

619 new cases / 12,958 tests = ~ 4.8 % positivity rate (Province)
121 new cases / 4,177 tests = ~ 2.9 % positivity rate (Vancouver Coastal Health Region)
384 new cases / 5,753 tests = ~ 6.7 % positivity rate (Fraser Health Region)

**Should be taken with grain of salt/factored into rolling average positivity

89 (-8) currently hospitalized in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
185 (-3) currently hospitalized in the Fraser Health region
16 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Interior Health region
8 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Island Health region
40 (-1) currently hospitalized in the Northern Health region

15 (+0) currently in critical care in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
38 (-1) currently in critical care in the Fraser Health region
4 (+0) currently in critical care in the Interior Health region
4 (+0) currently in critical care in the Island Health region
14 (+2) currently in critical care in the Northern Health region

"today’s 619 new cases show growth is slowing.

The seven day trailing average is down to 658 per day.

The seven day trailing count is down to 4,609 and remains below 5,000 which was above Nov 23 to Dec 3. Indeed we are equaling the Nov 20 value.

The incidence value per 100,000 person-years is 5,137. Slightly down. Incidence based on 14 day count. Until this majorly declines we will have restrictions.

The time to double the total case count, as measured over last five days only, climbed to 42 days. This is a nice change but a good value is 60 days and a great value is over 100.

The time to double daily new case count as measured since Oct 1 to Nov 27 roughly 18 day. The new cases since Nov 27 half every 30 days. We want this to be faster but the trend is good.

Data for last 12 days looks different than data from Oct 1 to Nov 27. There is a decline new cases per day halving every 30 days. The trend is clear but the deceleration is slow."

Vaccination order:

⁠Nursing Home residents and staff
⁠Remaining health care workers (likely organized from ICU/ER downwards)
⁠Retirement homes
⁠Isolated communities
⁠People over 80
⁠People over 70
⁠People over 60
⁠People under 60 with risk factors
⁠Essential service workers (ie grocery store employees, truck drivers, teachers, etc)

'When can we stop wearing masks?
Dr. Henry: Summer into the fall of 2021 is my best guess. That’s where we’re looking at. A very different and social summer. Next fall → more normal interactions #COVID19BC

[Abby_wx]

I predicted a month ago that we'd start seeing the curve bend down in December. I also said that I expect another spike early in the New Year as we see the fallout from Christmas. I will be very surprised if we don't see a Christmas surge. Even if 98% of the population obeys the orders (and that's being generous), that still leaves about 100K people who are potentially spreading the virus.

We're actually doing slightly better than I expected, though. It's kind of remarkable how well we're doing based on that chart Glacier posted. IMO, it's not fair to compare BC to sparsely populated provinces like Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, NB, NFLD, or the Yukon. Saskatchewan is the most populated of those, with just over 1/5th of BC's population, and the city of Saskatoon has about 1/5th the population density of Vancouver. The combination of lower overall population, lower density, plus general isolation (due to water or vast expanses of land) gives those places an advantage over well-connected and densely populated jurisdictions.

We're really the envy of North America, particularly here in Metro Vancouver. Just don't look at our overdose death numbers.

(Okay, but don't say I didn't warn you...)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5735247

[John]

I predicted a month ago that we'd start seeing the curve bend down in December. I also said that I expect another spike early in the New Year as we see the fallout from Christmas. I will be very surprised if we don't see a Christmas surge. Even if 98% of the population obeys the orders (and that's being generous), that still leaves about 100K people who are potentially spreading the virus.

We're actually doing slightly better than I expected, though. It's kind of remarkable how well we're doing based on that chart Glacier posted. IMO, it's not fair to compare BC to sparsely populated provinces like Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, NB, NFLD, or the Yukon. Saskatchewan is the most populated of those, with just over 1/5th of BC's population, and the city of Saskatoon has about 1/5th the population density of Vancouver. The combination of lower overall population, lower density, plus general isolation (due to water or vast expanses of land) gives those places an advantage over well-connected and densely populated jurisdictions.

We're really the envy of North America, particularly here in Metro Vancouver. Just don't look at our overdose death numbers.

(Okay, but don't say I didn't warn you...)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5735247

Ok gold sticker for you lol

[Forrest Gump]

What, nobody talkin vaccines ? To inject or not to inject, that is the question. Operation Warp Speed , damn the torpedoes. Will it become mandatory one day ? Maybe at certain workplaces to start?
"Resistance is Futile… You Will Be Assimilated“. New dna/rna technology. Is it safe ? How about long term? Already some allergic reactions reported. Apparently this new DNA type of vaccine is easier to make and less expensive. And a vaccinated person still might be able to transmit :A vaccine that protects against symptoms of Covid-19 could contribute to the spread of the disease if—and this is still just an if—the people who get vaccinated remain capable of carrying and transmitting the virus. That’s a risk that’s gotten little attention amid the deserved jubilation over a Nov. 9 report from Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE that their vaccine candidate appears to be highly effective.

Here's a quote from someone's concern: Sure people have dreamed up how mrna can be used to cure disease. These are great dreams but there is a reason mrna vaccination has never been previously approved in humans. There are huge risks with modifying your mrna permanently. Not exactly something you just turn off if you dont like the results. For instance, this could lead to autoimmune responses. The ADE response is a huge risk. Secondly some spike protein similarities exist in placental proteins. Want an autoimmune response to a growing placenta? How could that end? Did you read the Pfizer leaflet just released in UK with the vaccine rollout. Not recommended for pregnant or breastfeeding women or women who plan to be pregnant. Why is that? This is only approved because the covid hysteria has allowed big pharma to rush their studies with little concern for safety.

[Forrest Gump]

https://youtu.be/9sW0OmzcmL0

[PortKells]

Well I think we're about to find out here pretty quick if these vaccines cause problems. That sure would suck a lot. Lets just observe and see where it goes. I know I'd be nervous to be first in line so I'll agree on that. I guess its also a question of would you rather take a chance with catching the covid or take a chance with the vax?

[Abby_wx]

I'm not too worried about the vaccine. If you're a high risk group it's still safer to get vaccinated than it is to get COVID. If you're in a lower risk group, you're not getting vaccinated for months, anyway. If you don't want the Pfizer vaccine, you'll probably have other options when the times comes.

[Glacier]

I predicted a month ago that we'd start seeing the curve bend down in December. I also said that I expect another spike early in the New Year as we see the fallout from Christmas. I will be very surprised if we don't see a Christmas surge. Even if 98% of the population obeys the orders (and that's being generous), that still leaves about 100K people who are potentially spreading the virus.

We're actually doing slightly better than I expected, though. It's kind of remarkable how well we're doing based on that chart Glacier posted. IMO, it's not fair to compare BC to sparsely populated provinces like Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, NB, NFLD, or the Yukon. Saskatchewan is the most populated of those, with just over 1/5th of BC's population, and the city of Saskatoon has about 1/5th the population density of Vancouver. The combination of lower overall population, lower density, plus general isolation (due to water or vast expanses of land) gives those places an advantage over well-connected and densely populated jurisdictions.

We're really the envy of North America, particularly here in Metro Vancouver. Just don't look at our overdose death numbers.

(Okay, but don't say I didn't warn you...)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5735247

New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are more densely populated that BC... But yes, I get that's a very simplistic comparison since BC is mostly uninhabited while we have Vancouver, Surrey, etc. that are far more densely populated than anything in NB. I only included provinces and territories with at least 1 death. The last time I made the graph the Yukon had no deaths.

[John]

I'm not too worried about the vaccine. If you're a high risk group it's still safer to get vaccinated than it is to get COVID. If you're in a lower risk group, you're not getting vaccinated for months, anyway. If you don't want the Pfizer vaccine, you'll probably have other options when the times comes.

Me neither and I am not worried about covid19 either, we will see what happens

[PortKells]

dr-bonnie-henry-covid-19-bc-nov-2020.jpg

Dec 10th Covid-19 Update - Dr. Bonnie Henry says there are 723 new cases, total now of 40,060; 346 (+8) hospitalized of which 83 (+8) are in ICU; 9,524 (+195) active cases; 28,948 (+500) recovered; 28 additional deaths, total now of 587

11947 (+421) people who are under active public health monitoring as a result of identified exposure to known cases

10117 (+135) cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
25398 (+456) cases in the Fraser Health region
2502 (+82) cases in the Interior Health region
750 (+10) cases in the Island Health region
1199 (+40) cases in the Northern Health region
94 (+0) cases of people who reside outside of Canada

1236 (+16) active cases in the Vancouver Coastal Health region
7043 (+130) active cases in the Fraser Health region
679 (+23) active cases in the Interior Health region
161 (+3) active cases in the Island Health region
402 (+24) active cases in the Northern Health region

23 new cases / 12,614 tests = ~ 5.7 % positivity rate (Province)
135 new cases / 3,439 tests = ~ 3.9 % positivity rate (Vancouver Coastal Health Region)
456 new cases / 5,922 tests = ~ 7.7 % positivity rate (Fraser Health Region)

A good summary once again from Reddit BC:

Today’s 723 new cases could signal a break in the recent trend of slowing growth or be just a blip.

The seven day trailing average is up to 663 per day. But this is a value comparable to Nov 22.

The seven day trailing count is up to 4,638 and remains below 5,000 which was above Nov 23 to Dec 3. Indeed we are equaling the Nov 22 value.

The incidence value per 100,000 person-years is 5,052. Slightly down But is generally in decline. Incidence based on 14 day count. Until this majorly declines we will have restrictions.

The time to double the total case count, as measured over last five days only, climbed to 43 days. This is good to seem but a good value is 60 days and a great value is over 100.

The time to double daily new case count as measured since Oct 1 to Nov 27 roughly 18 day. The new cases since Nov 27 are declining but slowly. The half life are to extract when R2 is ~ 0.4

Data for last 13 days looks different than data from Oct 1 to Nov 27. Even with an up day, the trend is clear but the deceleration is slow.

28 deaths is a record shattering day for BC. This was always going to happen following the high case numbers but its still crazy and sad to see.

[Glacier]

Me neither and I am not worried about covid19 either, we will see what happens

I wasn't worried about the vaccine until I saw this article. At no time in history has the government ever felt the need to offer compensation if the vaccine causes problems. Totally weird, although Trudeau cannot find enough ways to spend tax payer's money, so maybe not that weird. Afterall, his finance minister was asking Canadians how she could extract the wealth out of Canadians so they don't save their money and instead spend it.

[AbbyJr]

I wasn't worried about the vaccine until I saw this article. At no time in history has the government ever felt the need to offer compensation if the vaccine causes problems. Totally weird, although Trudeau cannot find enough ways to spend tax payer's money, so maybe not that weird. Afterall, his finance minister was asking Canadians how she could extract the wealth out of Canadians so they don't save their money and instead spend it.

And now there is talk about employers making the vaccine mandatory.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mandat ... -1.5836153

No thank you. I'm firmly against mandatory vaccines. The reality is that nobody has the right to tell me what to put in my body period.

As far as I understand, they only need 60-70% of the population vaccinated to establish herd immunity. If so, then why not just make it voluntary given that its likely that we can reach those percentages by free choice.

This is a serious issue here. Its an issue of our freedoms. Its a violation of our human rights to force somebody to get vaccinated in order to participate in society such as going to the store, school, work etc. Nobody including the government and employers can deny somebody employment or access to essential items because they refuse to inject a substance into their body they don't want nor trust.

Now people say that if you don't get vaccinated, then you risk spreading the virus. True. But I'd only be at risk of infecting somebody who has also freely chosen not get the vaccine, assuming the vaccine is effective.

That said, I understand there are some people who may wish to take the vaccine but can not do so due to medical issues. Thus, somebody who is able to take it but freely chooses not too, could infect the individuals who want it but are medically unable to have it.

Thats also true. However, there are unfortunately risks in life. You still can not force somebody to inject a vaccine into their body. Period.

Somebody commented on the article and made a valid point. That is, you can not possibly test the long term safety of a vaccine that has been pushed in around a year. This is so true. Vaccines normally take at least 5 if not 10+ years to develop. There are legitimate reasons for people to be skeptical and concerned about this upcoming Covid vaccine. Those people have every right to reject it while still fully participating in society.