January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Storm]

Ice pellets are fine but freezing rain is terrible. No thank you.

Up here wa stayed as snow with far more marginal events, anyway it goes it will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

Screenshot_20240114_162327_X.jpg

[Typeing3]

High of -3.4C here.

Dropping quick here. High was -2.5c an hour ago and now down to -4.0c. Would be nice to see another sub -10c low tonight.

[AbbyJr]

Ice pellets are fine but freezing rain is terrible. No thank you.

Yeah I don't mind ice pellets but we don't need freezing rain.

Question: If the 925mb level is above freezing but the 850mb and surface is below freezing, would that be ice pellets or freezing rain?

[Typeing3]

Yeah I don't mind ice pellets but we don't need freezing rain.

Question: If the 925mb level is above freezing but the 850mb and surface is below freezing, would that be ice pellets or freezing rain?

Ice pellets.

[AbbyJr]

High of -3.4C here.

Very similar here. My high was -3.3C.

[Typeing3]

Here's a good visualization:

diagram.png

[AbbyJr]

Ice pellets.

So freezing rain occurs when both the 925mb and 850mb layers are above freezing but the surface is below freezing?

[Hound]

Not much ice yet at the Barnston Island area of the Fraser River:

986.jpg

984.jpg

[Typeing3]

So freezing rain occurs when both the 925mb and 850mb layers are above freezing but the surface is below freezing?

Yep.

[Slytyguy]

When did the Euro anticipate precip ( hopefully snow) starting?

[AbbyJr]

Yep.

With being established, the precipitation type may actually be incorrect on the RGEM here. While it shows freezing rain, the 925mb layer is slightly above freezing and the 850mb layer is slightly below freezing. The surface remains below freezing. So it's a very marginal setup.

Screenshot 2024-01-14 at 5.23.40 PM.png

[Michael1]

SWS issued for us

5:24 PM PST Sunday 14 January 2024

More winter weather expected later Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Tuesday, a Pacific low pressure system will approach the coast from the west. The moisture from this system will interact with arctic air already in place over the south coast to bring a messy mix of rain, freezing rain and snow on Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

Snow is expected to begin on Tuesday evening. Following the snow, parts of Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland could see a prolonged period of freezing rain or ice pellets overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

Freezing precipitation should change to rain during the day on Wednesday, though the timing of this transition is still uncertain.

The potential for heavy snow and freezing rain during this time could pose a hazard to travel and outdoor activities,

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

[Typeing3]

With being established, the precipitation type may actually be incorrect on the RGEM here. While it shows freezing rain, the 925mb layer is slightly above freezing and the 850mb layer is slightly below freezing. The surface remains below freezing. So it's a very marginal setup.


Screenshot 2024-01-14 at 5.23.40 PM.png

At face value, precip type would probably bounce back and forth between ice pellets and freezing rain.

[Typeing3]

When did the Euro anticipate precip ( hopefully snow) starting?

18z ECMWF = after 10pm Tuesday.

[AbbyJr]

At face value, precip type would probably bounce back and forth between ice pellets and heavy snow.

All fixed.