January 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Nope not even close on the GEM ripped from the AF folks.

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[PortKells]

Hmm. The euro goes to nowhere land. The GFS is now on its own.

[Hawk]

Haha Tell em Catnip!!
How you liking our Ridguary so far Nito?
Drizzle and fog...expected!

[Hawk]

The models are struggling again!!

[Storm]

Haha Tell em Catnip!!
How you liking our Ridguary so far Nito?
Drizzle and fog...expected!

so much for the promise sun.

[AbbyJr]

Unfortunately, models are once again backing off on the cold solutions. While I do expect more flip flopping in the models, my confidence in cold and snowy pattern around the beginning of February is once again decreasing. This could end up being a February 2017 situation where the models suddenly flip colder and snowier 4-5 days out, but for now its best to go with latest model trends, which suggest more of a +EPO pattern, which isn't favourable for arctic air in our region. The GFS is the closest to bringing at least a brief period of arctic air but it can't be relied on without support from the other models. Therefore, its an outlier until other models trend towards its solutions.

[wetcoast91]

?

[tyweather]

The fog was up to 540m elevation on Cypress. Pretty thick!

[Pomoman]

Life at the very top of the fog deck. One minute sunny the next I am in the soup. Either way the views are fun.

[PortKells]

Unfortunately, models are once again backing off on the cold solutions. While I do expect more flip flopping in the models, my confidence in cold and snowy pattern around the beginning of February is once again decreasing. This could end up being a February 2017 situation where the models suddenly flip colder and snowier 4-5 days out, but for now its best to go with latest model trends, which suggest more of a +EPO pattern, which isn't favourable for arctic air in our region. The GFS is the closest to bringing at least a brief period of arctic air but it can't be relied on without support from the other models. Therefore, its an outlier until other models trend towards its solutions.

Yeah that EPS run was a real wet blanket on things. I'm guessing the GEFS will back off soon.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah that EPS run was a real wet blanket on things. I'm guessing the GEFS will back off soon.

Yeah but there is still time for it to flip back to the -PNA/-EPO cold pattern. While I'm not confident that it will, it's still a possibility.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Well the mood certainly swung from last night. We were rug pulling earlier.

So the ridge really will last for two weeks now?

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Unfortunately, models are once again backing off on the cold solutions. While I do expect more flip flopping in the models, my confidence in cold and snowy pattern around the beginning of February is once again decreasing. This could end up being a February 2017 situation where the models suddenly flip colder and snowier 4-5 days out, but for now its best to go with latest model trends, which suggest more of a +EPO pattern, which isn't favourable for arctic air in our region. The GFS is the closest to bringing at least a brief period of arctic air but it can't be relied on without support from the other models. Therefore, its an outlier until other models trend towards its solutions.

Family Day weekend special, you heard it here first!

[wetcoast91]

Congrats Bono!

I am aware that was 20 pages ago

[Typeing3]

Family Day weekend special, you heard it here first!

Feb 1990 snowstorm repeat!