January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[John]

Models are shifting the ridge further east each run. Should see plenty of +7 max and -1C nights after the initial shot of continential air!

I would be OK with that if it were true, but we know you’re making that up. Nice try

[wetcoast91]

I would be OK with that if it were true, but we know you’re making that up. Nice try

All lies.

[Canada Goose]

Models are shifting the ridge further east each run. Should see plenty of +7 max and -1C nights after the initial shot of continential air!

Wow, that's great...
Personally, I don't want dry cold. I want snow, and particularly in the mountains. So...

[PortKells]

I would be OK with that if it were true, but we know you’re making that up. Nice try

The models are most definitely crapping the bed. We are screwed. I wish it was propaganda.

[Typeing3]

Wow, that's great...
Personally, I don't want dry cold. I want snow, and particularly in the mountains. So...

I'd rather dry cold to fog and drizzle. Especially given how persistently wet/drippy/cloudy it's been this winter as we've had no offshore flow at all. Not extreme precip-wise but no real wall to wall sunny days. I believe the last one IMBY was at the end of November, just prior to the inversion which is pretty sad.

[wetcoast91]

I'd rather dry cold to fog and drizzle. Especially given how persistently wet/drippy/cloudy it's been this winter as we've had no offshore flow at all. Not extreme precip-wise but no real wall to wall sunny days. I believe the last one IMBY was at the end of November, just prior to the inversion which is pretty sad.

Good news is the very high mountain snowpack is on ok shape.

Bad news is there is no new mountain snows possible over the next 16 days.

The models are most definitely crapping the bed. We are screwed. I wish it was propaganda.

We were on the razors edge of it with most cold air going well east of here. Models did perform well showing the 500mb details.

The seasonal forecasts have been total garbage. Super long range models continue to show a Nina setup but you can actually see the GOA vortex waking up at the end of the op runs.

[Catnip]

I'd rather dry cold to fog and drizzle. Especially given how persistently wet/drippy/cloudy it's been this winter as we've had no offshore flow at all. Not extreme precip-wise but no real wall to wall sunny days. I believe the last one IMBY was at the end of November, just prior to the inversion which is pretty sad.

Agreed. The low cloud/fog/drizzle is getting old… as is the moss growth this year.

While I always wish for snow, some sunny cool days will be a nice change.

[Catnip]

Models are shifting the ridge further east each run. Should see plenty of +7 max and -1C nights after the initial shot of continential air!

Don’t get too excited Neetz.

We still have #FEB ahead of us!

[wetcoast91]

Don’t get too excited Neetz.

We still have #FEB ahead of us!

I think any multi-week arctic blast with tons of lowland snowfall isn't in the cards this winter barring a SSW event with favorable blocking. Doubtful. There is way too much activity in the Pacific.

Pacific jet will probably ramp up for Feb BUT we may see a more favorable NW flow which could bring higher elevation snows to Metro Vancouver.

[SouthSardiswx]

I would be OK with that if it were true, but we know you’re making that up. Nice try

John's getting annoyed. beautiful sunny Sunday and 6c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[wetcoast91]

Fantastic day outside

[PortKells]

I think any multi-week arctic blast with tons of lowland snowfall isn't in the cards this winter barring a SSW event with favorable blocking. Doubtful. There is way too much activity in the Pacific.

Pacific jet will probably ramp up for Feb BUT we may see a more favorable NW flow which could bring higher elevation snows to Metro Vancouver.

I’m good for some more favourable skiing weather if that’s the best that’s offered.

[Hawk]

Happy Sunny Sunday. There are many sunny days ahead for all my buttees to enjoy

#patternshift
#happeningnow

[AbbyJr]

The models are most definitely crapping the bed. We are screwed. I wish it was propaganda.

Agreed. Even the promising weekly runs don't look promising given their track record of defaulting to ENSO climo. Perhaps one more model tease before this winter ultimately ends up a dud. At least the past three have been solid. The arctic blast last January was a bonus given it was a strong El Niño. There were even dud winters in the 50's and 60's. That said, there is still a chance we get some arctic air here later this month or in February. But I feel the chances of that are pretty low at this point. But time will tell. Either way, hope everyone has a good new year.

[SouthSardiswx]

Agreed. Even the promising weekly runs don't look promising given their track record of defaulting to ENSO climo. Perhaps one more model tease before this winter ultimately ends up a dud. At least the past three have been solid. The arctic blast last January was a bonus given it was a strong El Niño. There were even dud winters in the 50's and 60's. That said, there is still a chance we get some arctic air here later this month or in February. But I feel the chances of that are pretty low at this point. But time will tell. Either way, hope everyone has a good new year.

Such a positive group on the AF Jr. Man l reactivated my account just to join the group therapy down there let's all jump off the cliff together.