October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

[PortKells]

Because of damage or because you just don’t like them? For me windstorms are fun but I hate power outages, especially if I need to work

On our farm there are a lot of temporary structures, things flying around, etc. Also I live in an RV and it is highly uncomfortable listening to the wind howling for some reason, its just hella loud and impossible to sleep. We also have a massive tree that just died in the summer that would absolutely destroy our home and probably us if it fell the wrong direction. I suspect if I lived in a regular permanent structure in the city I would enjoy the spectacle a lot more.

Oh. And power outages. We are always last on the priority list since we live in a lower density neighbourhood. We are fortunate not to live on well because people around here do and they don't even have running water for however long it takes to get the power back up.

[SouthSardiswx]

Kells my friend you really need to have it taken down if it's damaged (dead) eventually you know we'll be due for a blow l'd rather talk to you then about you as they say.

[AbbyJr]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... UuNSQ&s=19

[PortKells]

Kells my friend you really need to have it taken down if it's damaged (dead) eventually you know we'll be due for a blow l'd rather talk to you then about you as they say.

I'd like to. Maybe we will top the tree. Luckily we are somewhat sheltered from that direction, the southwest.

[SouthSardiswx]

I'd like to. Maybe we will top the tree. Luckily we are somewhat sheltered from that direction, the southwest.

Still my friend it wouldn't take much you know how it is around here,
someone farts and a tree falls down.

[SouthSardiswx]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status ... UuNSQ&s=19

Geesh maybe this active correlation in fall does lead to a good winter.
A quiet El Nito is a sign l watch every year.

[AbbyJr]

12Z Euro trended south and less deep (982mb as opposed to the 969mb shown on the 00Z) for next weeks potential windstorm. Still very strong winds but not as intense as the 00Z solution.

12ZGEM looks similar to the 00Z Euro with a 975mb low tracking over central Vancouver Island.

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-mslp_anom-5271200.png

gem-all-albertabc-mslp_anom-5152400.png

[SouthSardiswx]

12Z Euro trended south and less deep (982mb as opposed to the 969mb shown on the 00Z) for next weeks potential windstorm. Still very strong winds but not as intense as the 00Z solution.

12ZGEM looks similar to the 00Z Euro with a 975mb low tracking over central Vancouver Island.

ecmwf-deterministic-albertabc-mslp_anom-5271200.png

gem-all-albertabc-mslp_anom-5152400.png

So are we tracking a potentially serious wind event JR. man since Dec. of 2018?

[AbbyJr]

So are we tracking a potentially serious wind event JR. man since Dec. of 2018?

Looks like it.

[SouthSardiswx]

Looks like it.

Nice maybe it will make up for the busted rainfall event for the central valley.

[Monty]

Given the look of the ensembles for next week it’s hard to imagine there not being an impactful storm cycle. Possibly more than 1 storm.

[Typeing3]

Given the look of the ensembles for next week it’s hard to imagine there not being an impactful storm cycle. Possibly more than 1 storm.

Agreed.

18z GFS day 8:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png

Day 9:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

Day 11:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_43.png

[Monty]

Agreed.

18z GFS day 8:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_32.png

Day 9:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

Day 11:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_43.png

Unseasonably low snow levels with that one around day 9

[AbbyJr]

Given the look of the ensembles for next week it’s hard to imagine there not being an impactful storm cycle. Possibly more than 1 storm.

Similar to November and December 2006? November 2007 also had an impressive windstorm cycle.

[PortKells]

Unseasonably low snow levels with that one around day 9

About time we get off to an earlier snow season.