December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:29 pm Think COLD AND SNOW!!!
C'MON!!!
HISTORIC RUNS AHEAD!
NITO APPROVED
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Storm wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:31 pm HISTORIC RUNS AHEAD!
NITO APPROVED
It's December 28th.
:typing: :type3:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:32 pm It's December 28th.
Better than February 28th. Plenty winter ahead.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Typeing3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:31 pmIt's over.
Maybe we can squeeze some ice cold east winds out of it?
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Storm wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:33 pm Better than February 28th. Plenty winter ahead.
Sun angles were the same as today on December 28th, 1949. Analogue???? :shock:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Daffodils are picking through in North Bend. Analog please.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

This place today.

The :fish: can take the day off from the “comedy” routine.

:clap: :clap: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:39 pm This place today.

The :fish: can take the day off from the “comedy” routine.

:clap: :clap: :lol: :lol: :lol:
We have fill up from time to time.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Storm wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:37 pm Daffodils are picking through in North Bend. Analog please.
Tim posted a picture of his kid this day 2 years ago

Analogs please?
All about them Cowboys !!! 🤠 🤠
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Interesting read:

Snowmageddon warnings in North America come from tropics more than Arctic stratosphere

https://phys.org/news/2019-12-snowmaged ... rctic.html
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Lisa0527 »

Can someone who is wiser in the ways of models explain to me why the GEFS is soooo much better than the GFS.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Lisa0527 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:32 pm Can someone who is wiser in the ways of models explain to me why the GEFS is soooo much better than the GFS.
The GEFS is still run off the old GFS. The FV3 which became the new GFS is supposed to engine the ensembles sometime in 2020, I believe. That may be a part of the discrepancy.
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Nobody shower tonight.

C’MON!
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Lisa0527 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:32 pm Can someone who is wiser in the ways of models explain to me why the GEFS is soooo much better than the GFS.
The GEFS is an average of 20 ensemble members that have been perturbed slightly differently. Basically 20 model runs run with a slightly different data set. To my knowledge the GEFS is still based on the old GFS model and not the new GFS FV3. So they are technically a different models data set. Generally the Operational GFS is more accurate in the short term. GEFS more reliable in long range
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Re: December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

there seems to be a lot of angst; yesterday's models were awesome but today's are winter cancel? I'm not an expert in how a computer model is set up, but how many parameters do the algorithms include in their calculations? How much historical probability is included? ENSO, PDO? any number of things can change 15 minutes after a model run. I'm going to wait until March 1st to declare disappointment. Having said that, March 1996 saw a mid month snowfall here that stayed around for days...
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