The cold high never comes and westerly storms coming in. We need the block to shift east just a bit so there is less toughing in the Pacific and more over BC.
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Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
tyweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:27 pm
The cold high never comes and westerly storms coming in. We need the block to shift east just a bit so there is less toughing in the Pacific and more over BC.
Yup. The epic GFS runs earlier had the cold trough right over BC. Recent runs have, however, shifted it west into the pacific, allowing the milder air to win out.
At this point, all we need is minor adjustments for it to become epic again. This is still a week away, so the colder snowy solutions are still possible.
AbbyJr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:13 pm
It is pretty frustrating though that even a -ENSO/+QBO/SSW combo can't even deliver an arctic front into our region anymore it seems.
Back in the 50's, 60's, 90's etc... this type of atmospheric configuration would have easily delivered the goods.
00Z GFS is another mild run in the long range.
I feel people may tend to put too much stock into this. We can get arctic outbreaks and big snows on the south coast during winter without a -enso/+qbo/ssw combo.
As seen in recorded history, odds may be higher when these things line up but it's not like we haven't seen warm and nearly snowless winters during -enso years. Especially recently as the slow warming of our climate has lead to declines in cold snaps and snowfall.
Typeing3 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:52 pm
I feel people may tend to put too much stock into this. We can get arctic outbreaks and big snows on the south coast during winter without a -enso/+qbo/ssw combo.
As seen in recorded history, odds may be higher when these things line up but it's not like we haven't seen warm and nearly snowless winters during -enso years. Especially recently as the slow warming of our climate has lead to declines in cold snaps and snowfall.
Good point. The great winter of 1968/69 was +ENSO/-QBO and it was probably one of the best winters here.
That said, we also may be putting too much stock in the long range models right now. The colder and snowier solutions could easily come back in the coming days.
Edit: Looking at the 00Z GFS again, its actually not bad in the believable range. Shows close to 20 cm for Abbotsford Sunday with chilly temperatures to follow. A brief period of milder air in the long range before another cool down and more snow.
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year!
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Bonovox wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 10:36 pm
After what has been a horrible winter, I’m okay with the 00z runs in the mid term.
Cold rains?? At least it's not mild rain?
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year!
#patternlock with #patternshift mid month
Willoughby Langley at ~320ft / Similkameeeens ~3400ft
Fall/Winter 
