December 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

I'd be curious to see a picture of your cabin if you have one.

[Storm]

perfect place for fishing.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Really wet. About +6C.

Dammit. Missed by 4ËšC.

[Typeing3]

I wonder what the min temp at Seymour and Cypress is so far. -6C? It's been incredibly mild up there so far.

Snowpack is good up there at least.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah, those are great for reloads with a fresh batch of arctic air coming from the interior.

Many times it's the Gulf of Alaska (NW) or inside slider (N/NW) lows that help to usher in the arctic air.

Inside slider for sure.

Correct if I'm wrong, but the November 2006 snowstorm was an inside slider that met up with an incoming arctic front forming a convergence zone, right?

[Typeing3]

Inside slider for sure.

Correct if I'm wrong, but the November 2006 snowstorm was an inside slider that met up with an incoming arctic front forming a convergence zone, right?

Weak low formed off the central coast and slid down the coast. Stalled between the Washington coast and south tip of Vancouver island. Arctic front pushed south and met with the bands of moisture pumping into the mainland from the SW.

[AbbyJr]

Weak low formed off the central coast and slid down the coast. Stalled between the Washington coast and south tip of Vancouver island. Arctic front pushed south and met with the bands of moisture pumping into the mainland from the SW.

That was a last minute one to IIRC.

[wetcoast91]

Inside slider for sure.

Correct if I'm wrong, but the November 2006 snowstorm was an inside slider that met up with an incoming arctic front forming a convergence zone, right?

Slider fizzled out. Secondary surface low developed just off Nanaimo. This was enhanced by lower level convergence AND an arctic boundary once this meandered close to the Lower Mainland.

There was a lot going on and all the models got it completely wrong. I remember the forecast was 30% chance of showers and wet flurries and clearing by evening. Eastern areas of Metro Van got hit with 40cm to 50cm of snow.

[AbbyJr]

Slider fizzled out. Secondary surface low developed just off Nanaimo. This was enhanced by lower level convergence AND an arctic boundary once this meandered close to the Lower Mainland.

There was a lot going on and all the models got it completely wrong. I remember the forecast was 30% chance of showers and wet flurries and clearing by evening. Eastern areas of Metro Van got hit with 40cm to 50cm of snow.

Yeah IIRC, the 5 AM update on November 25 was for a chance of flurries. By 10:00 AM, it was updated to include a snowfall warning with up to 50cm possible. Started snowing that night and the next day was heavy snow all day. Abbotsford got hit with around 50cm in total, so the warning verified, but the models clearly got it wrong leading up to the event.

That was one of the rare cases where a model bust worked out in our favour. Another example would be February 2017, though the models figured that one out a bit sooner than November 2006.

Hey do you still have a copy of the snowfall warning for the 2006 storm?

[Typeing3]

Slider fizzled out. Secondary surface low developed just off Nanaimo. This was enhanced by lower level convergence AND an arctic boundary once this meandered close to the Lower Mainland.

There was a lot going on and all the models got it completely wrong. I remember the forecast was 30% chance of showers and wet flurries and clearing by evening. Eastern areas of Metro Van got hit with 40cm to 50cm of snow.

271106.PNG

I'll never forget that event. Easily the heaviest snow I've ever seen around here.

[Typeing3]

Yeah IIRC, the 5 AM update on November 25 was for a chance of flurries. By 10:00 AM, it was updated to include a snowfall warning with up to 50cm possible. Started snowing that night and the next day was heavy snow all day. Abbotsford got hit with around 50cm in total, so the warning verified, but the models clearly got it wrong leading up to the event.

That was one of the rare cases where a model bust worked out in our favour. Another example would be February 2017, though the models figured that one out a bit sooner than November 2006.

Hey do you still have a copy of the snowfall warning for the 2006 storm?

I think Abby_wx or Hound posted a few pictures of some historical EC forecasts or warnings they had snapped before. I remember there were a couple from 2008, not sure if they had any from 2006.

[AbbyJr]

271106.PNG

I'll never forget that event. Easily the heaviest snow I've ever seen around here.

Same here. I'm from Prince George and lived there during the 90's. Yet, I still don't recall seeing such high snowfall rates such as what I saw on November 26th, 2006 in Abbotsford. Me and my family took our dog for a walk in Clearbrook Park during that snowstorm and it literally felt like we were somewhere back east.

A similar but even more intense snowfall hit Abbotsford on January 21 1954. It was one of the several storms that brought relentless heavy snow to the Lower Mainland. Temperatures were a lot colder than 2006, so snow ratios would have been higher too.

In fact, the January 1954 snowfall was the highest on record with a massive 49.8cm falling on the 21 and that would only be the beginning as several more intense snowstorms would fall during the week. Totals were in excess of 100cm.

Just wait. The redux is coming January 2021...

[wetcoast91]

271106.PNG

I'll never forget that event. Easily the heaviest snow I've ever seen around here.

The most ridiculous thing was remember cloud tops briefly reaching near 35,000ft in the area or convergence. I think there were a few lightning strikes near White Rock. That was the heaviest snow I have driven through in my life.

Hey do you still have a copy of the snowfall warning for the 2006 storm?

Nope. I believed they only noted localized amounts of 50cm...but this ended up being regionwide 50cm.

[Typeing3]

Same here. I'm from Prince George and lived there during the 90's. Yet, I still don't recall seeing such high snowfall rates such as what I saw on November 26th, 2006 in Abbotsford. Me and my family took our dog for a walk in Clearbrook Park during that snowstorm and it literally felt like we were somewhere back east.

A similar but even more intense snowfall hit Abbotsford on January 21 1954. It was one of the several storms that brought relentless heavy snow to the Lower Mainland. Temperatures were a lot colder than 2006, so snow ratios would have been higher too.

In fact, the January 1954 snowfall was the highest on record with a massive 49.8cm falling on the 21 and that would only be the beginning as several more intense snowstorms would fall during the week. Totals were in excess of 100cm.

Just wait. The redux is coming January 2021...

That two week spell in January 1954 was pretty special. The valley got blasted.

For metro Vancouver at least, I think mid January 1971 was more impressive. Just over 100cm of snow at YVR between the 11th and 15th.

[AbbyJr]

The most ridiculous thing was remember cloud tops briefly reaching near 35,000ft in the area or convergence. I think there were a few lightning strikes near White Rock. That was the heaviest snow I have driven through in my life.



Nope. I believed they only noted localized amounts of 50cm...but this ended up being regionwide 50cm.

Nope.

No problem.

I believed they only noted localized amounts of 50cm...but this ended up being regionwide 50cm.

Thats what I recall as well. Exciting event for sure.