October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Blueberry fields in the Fraser Valley were putting on a show today.

IMG_0807_scaled.jpg

IMG_0805_scaled.jpg

[Catnip]

18z Euro

3FB73919-B67B-4312-A29B-78A9C57C3AE3.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

18z Euro



3FB73919-B67B-4312-A29B-78A9C57C3AE3.png

Donuts for me. Throw it out!

[SouthSardiswx]

Blueberry fields in the Fraser Valley were putting on a show today.

Nice Rubes ya l mentioned last week this year seems to be a full on Roctober change of leaves must be the wet cooler weather helping.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

GFS has a few flakes north of the Fraser. Alas, it’s only the GFS and it stands alone.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8256800.png

[SouthSardiswx]

GFS has a few flakes north of the Fraser. Alas, it’s only the GFS and it stands alone.

l'll go with the NWS for the central valley Rubes sounds more interesting.

[SouthSardiswx]

I wonder any wind shift with the Arctic fluffer perhaps dew point drop and air temperature rise.

Screenshot_20231022_235303_MyRadar.jpg

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

----------------------------------------

20231023133356-00ad1916124314159568c8541e581a12fc92f9b7.png

20231023133256-a993e681191ff561c48d137a26bff3f3c8cd73f6.png

[SouthSardiswx]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




----------------------------------------
20231023133356-00ad1916124314159568c8541e581a12fc92f9b7.png
20231023133256-a993e681191ff561c48d137a26bff3f3c8cd73f6.png

Decent drop Tearly all 3 models if only it was 4 weeks later.

[SouthSardiswx]

Nonetheless it looks like a decent hard frost for the valley later this week.
Can someone look up the last time YXX hit below 0c this early l'm assuming 2019?

[Typeing3]

Nonetheless it looks like a decent hard frost for the valley later this week.
Can someone look up the last time YXX hit below 0c this early l'm assuming 2019?

-0.4c Oct 22 2020.

Pretty standard time of year for the first freeze to be honest.

[stuffradio]

5% chance of snow tomorrow!

Screenshot 2023-10-23 at 08-03-46 NCEP SREF Plume Viewer.png

[wetcoast91]

5% chance of snow tomorrow!

Screenshot 2023-10-23 at 08-03-46 NCEP SREF Plume Viewer.png

Morning runs are showing less in the way of cold air at the surface. Looks like most snow stays above 800m.

[Catnip]

cfs_z500_anom_northamerica_202401_28.png

[Glacier]

Yikes! YVR is at 100.1 mm for the month, and 150.1 mm IMBY.

But it is well-known that atmospheric rivers are quite shallow and thus the mountains block them from reaching further east.

Ya, it's crazy how dry the south Okanagan is in September and October! In Osoyoos the average in September and October is just 14.9mm and 18.6mm, which is drier than any Spring month. The only other month below 22mm is August at 17.3 mm.

As you move north, and I'm only talking just Penticton north, Spring is drier than Fall. By the time you get to Kamloops, Spring is much, much drier than Fall. Fall storms hit further north than Spring/Winter storms?

Could get snow in the Okanagan tonight. I haven't had a freeze yet, which I think is the latest ever for my place. I'll have to hook up my weather station heater tonight...