October 2021 Forecasts and Discussion

[AbbyJr]

Was definitely one of most significant 24-36hr snowfalls in recorded history across much of the central and eastern valley.

The old Sardis station recorded 97cm on Nov 16th/17th, 1996.

And then December 1996 happened. What an epic winter.

[Typeing3]

And then December 1996 happened. What an epic winter.

There was also a fairly short moderate arctic blast later in January '97. Was mostly dry with little snow though.

[Typeing3]

Where was the old Sardis station located Trex? I know the one now is located in the Garrison area the one l took the photo of.

It was just west of Chilliwack Lake provincial park.

[AbbyJr]

There was also a fairly short moderate arctic blast later in January '97. Was mostly dry with little snow though.

Do you think the February 2017 snowstorm was similar to the November 1996 event? I see similarities though the 2017 storm was longer in duration resulting in slightly higher totals.

[Typeing3]

Do you think the February 2017 snowstorm was similar to the November 1996 event? I see similarities though the 2017 storm was longer in duration resulting in slightly higher totals.

Not sure. There was certainly more snow in Metro Vancouver with the Feb 2017 event. YVR picked up 15.9cm in Nov '96 and 35.4cm in Feb '17.

I'd say the Nov 1996 setup was a convergence zone that formed with the leading edge of the arctic front (hence the extreme snowfall gradient between the valley and metro vancouver) while Feb 2017 was a prolonged stalled system off the coast after the cold air had already trickled in.

[Roberts Creeker]

44 mm of rain today (up to 11 pm). Temp was pretty steady ranging between 10 - 13C nothing like the tropical highs some of you reported.

I drove down to Gibsons, and the rain was heavier down there which it often is and the highway was flooded in several areas where the ditches had overflowed or the culverts had gotten blocked. There was quite a deep puddle and quite a deep stream running across the road.

[Monty]

969mb crossing central Vancouver Island. Bye everyone it’s been nice knowing you

In all seriousness, the 6-10 period on the euro has been showing potential to be a big wind storm pattern.

E95D99B5-3E35-401F-BDC6-2AFD81CEE64A.png

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (14).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (15).png

[AbbyJr]

969mb crossing central Vancouver Island. Bye everyone it’s been nice knowing you

In all seriousness, the 6-10 period on the euro has been showing potential to be a big wind storm pattern.

E95D99B5-3E35-401F-BDC6-2AFD81CEE64A.png

If that verified, there would be severe wind damage and widespread power outages. Damage would likely be worse given we are early in the season with foliage still on the trees and we are coming off of a major drought and wet pattern.

That said, I doubt we see a 969mb low cross central Vancouver Island but there is definitely potential for at least one if not multiple major windstorms in a pattern as shown on the models.

[Monty]

If that verified, there would be severe wind damage and widespread power outages. Damage would likely be worse given we are early in the season with foliage still on the trees and we are coming off of a major drought and wet pattern.

That said, I doubt we see a 969mb low cross central Vancouver Island but there is definitely potential for at least one if not multiple major windstorms in a pattern as shown on the models.

The December 20,2018 storm was 976mb, for reference. Though that was a rare beast. Continuing to intensify right up to landfall

[SouthSardiswx]

44 mm of rain today (up to 11 pm). Temp was pretty steady ranging between 10 - 13C nothing like the tropical highs some of you reported.

I drove down to Gibsons, and the rain was heavier down there which it often is and the highway was flooded in several areas where the ditches had overflowed or the culverts had gotten blocked. There was quite a deep puddle and quite a deep stream running across the road.

Wow, nothing like that in the central valley at all my pond didn't overflow so l didn't leave the yard.

[SouthSardiswx]

969mb crossing central Vancouver Island. Bye everyone it’s been nice knowing you

In all seriousness, the 6-10 period on the euro has been showing potential to be a big wind storm pattern.

E95D99B5-3E35-401F-BDC6-2AFD81CEE64A.png

No worries M it's always 10 day's away.

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (14).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (15).png

Quite a few cold ones in there at months end

[PortKells]

969mb crossing central Vancouver Island. Bye everyone it’s been nice knowing you

In all seriousness, the 6-10 period on the euro has been showing potential to be a big wind storm pattern.

E95D99B5-3E35-401F-BDC6-2AFD81CEE64A.png

Eff. Windstorms suck here. I hope they all bust again.

[stuffradio]

Eff. Windstorms suck here. I hope they all bust again.

Because of damage or because you just don’t like them? For me windstorms are fun but I hate power outages, especially if I need to work