October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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AbbyJr
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:03 pm Beautiful.

That's the "ultimate trifecta" for cold in BC right there.
-PNA/-EPO/-NAO.
All primed up for an awesome winter for us :D :clap: :thumbup:
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Don't know about anyone else, but we had a bit of a gusty north wind kicking up at Edgemont Village just now. Rain was at a 45 degree angle and a couple leaves are being thrown around despite the sogginess.
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:27 am Or EC is wrong. :lol:
F329877A-19F2-409C-B5A3-5ACD14B17B72.jpeg
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North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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AbbyJr
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Monty wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:43 pm F329877A-19F2-409C-B5A3-5ACD14B17B72.jpeg
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Forrest Gump »

Monty wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:43 pm F329877A-19F2-409C-B5A3-5ACD14B17B72.jpeg
And there's a 150% chance that sardineman will be commenting on the photo.
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Typeing3
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Mattman wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:59 am At this point I'm inclined to wait and see. The GFS has had some blocky solutions for the next 7 days 7ish days ago only to cave to a more zonal pattern. Same for the end of the month: GFS was setting up a ridge by the end of the month yesterday, but now the 06z is zonal towards the end of the month. What is certain is model flip-flopping uncertainty.
Yeah, I guess we'll see. Just seems like we're overdue for a pattern change. 18z is back to showing a ridge in the mid and long range
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

+PNA towards end of month :thumbup:

Still at the time of year where a massive ridge can bring very warm temps.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:39 pm +PNA towards end of month :thumbup:

Still at the time of year where a massive ridge can bring very warm temps.
Wouldn't mind a mild spell at all.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Monty wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:43 pm F329877A-19F2-409C-B5A3-5ACD14B17B72.jpeg
But can she score like the Knuckles lately. :lol: they dominate the Wingless 5-1. :thumbup:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:39 pm +PNA towards end of month :thumbup:

Still at the time of year where a massive ridge can bring very warm temps.
Yep. Looks very cold for central and eastern North America.
gfs_z500a_namer_51.png
gfs_z500a_namer_65.png
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Mattman »

06z GFS nominally better (progressive) than yesterday in the clown range. The ridging that does occur is rather transient. No massive Omega Block ridge stays parked overhead. Well, onto the 12z. :D
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

Mattman wrote: Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:30 am 06z GFS nominally better (progressive) than yesterday in the clown range. The ridging that does occur is rather transient. No massive Omega Block ridge stays parked overhead. Well, onto the 12z. :D
I was hoping we wouldn't get into that ridgy forever garbage, l don't think we will this year.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Downpouring right now. It's been raining most of the day started with drizzle. I need a rain gauge.
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

wetcoast91 wrote: Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:39 pm +PNA towards end of month :thumbup:

Still at the time of year where a massive ridge can bring very warm temps.
I saw somewhere accuweather saying we are due for a mild fall and dry winter.

I guess we can expect the opposite unless env Canada says different right?
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Re: October 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

High winds and heavy rainfall in south Sardis. 14.7mm so far and had a wind gust of SW 35kmh so far this evening
Now up to 22.0mm today.
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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