October 2022 Forecast and Discussions

[Bonovox]

https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... MP27KBPlVA

[Catnip]

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

EPS1.png

Eps2.png

[Abby_wx]

Feels quite fall like today. Just 17.6C at 1:30 PM. Probably won't hit 20C today, which will be a first for this month.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I wonder if we can squeeze out two more dry weekends.

It seems the Ensembles/long range GFS are wanting to bring some wetter weather in the extended. Perhaps that is like watching them show cold 240+ hrs out in the winter and then warming as we get closer.



00z Euro 10 Day Precip

00z Euro.png

I will be excited once the forecast pattern change gets within five days. Until then, I will assume it is the models having difficulty coping with an RRR and reverting to climo once they get into the clown range. The latter once showed a pattern change around the beginning of October. That, obviously, did not happen.

[Roberts Creeker]

I wonder if we can squeeze out two more dry weekends.

It seems the Ensembles/long range GFS are wanting to bring some wetter weather in the extended. Perhaps that is like watching them show cold 240+ hrs out in the winter and then warming as we get closer.



00z Euro 10 Day Precip

00z Euro.png

Or it's going to arrive early and not stop until next June.

[Roberts Creeker]

Saturday
sat.png

Sunday
sun.png

is right!!! I wonder if they'll put up a SWS for heat.

[AbbyJr]

If this verifies, would we be in record territory? I'm not sure if Abbotsford has ever recorded temperatures above 25C in mid October.

nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5522000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-5489600.png

[Catnip]

18z GFS

Sat

18zsat.png

Sun

18sun.png

[Catnip]

anom.png

[Catnip]

Another fire.

These can’t all be a coincidence….





https://twitter.com/cityofcoquitlam/sta ... dH5eixqsrA

[Catnip]

https://twitter.com/50shadesofvan/statu ... dH5eixqsrA

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/50shadesofvan/statu ... dH5eixqsrA

Those negative anomalies are almost a throwback to October 27/28, 1919 when we got a region-wide 5-10cm of snow!

[SouthSardiswx]

Another fire.

These can’t all be a coincidence….

No confirmed on CKNW this afternoon there's a fire bug at work Heritage Mtn area . Be safe Cats while roaming around at night.
It's an outstanding refreshing 17.4c @ the pond in south Sardis the visibility is much better now.

[Catnip]

No confirmed on CKNW this afternoon there's a fire bug at work Heritage Mtn area . Be safe Cats while roaming around at night.
It's an outstanding refreshing 17.4c @ the pond in south Sardis the visibility is much better now.

https://twitter.com/globalbc/status/158 ... ntN6_C2-3Q

[Roberts Creeker]

https://twitter.com/50shadesofvan/statu ... dH5eixqsrA

Interesting to see the anomaly flipped around.

Coldest night this fall 5.7c in Sechelt and the lowest high of 15.9c. Currently 11.7c outside and only 17.2c inside. Time to start up the woodstove, first burn for the fall.