August 2022 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

Pretty good thunderstorm outbreak in the Willamette Valley right now. Been following the reports on the American forum. It’s working its way north, so hopefully it makes it here.

Once they hit the border forcefield:

[Forrest Gump]

I’ll take the rain, thanks.

And your wife and kids are okay with rain for 365 days a year?

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[Bonovox]

And your wife and kids are okay with rain for 365 days a year?

They don’t like the rain as much as I do, but it doesn’t bother them. We love going on family walks in the rain!

[Bonovox]

The HRRR seems intent on keeping bulk of the energy offshore. The Euro not so much. We’ll see.

[wetcoast91]

Once they hit the border forcefield:

I can see it now...

Major line of thunderstorms fizzle out. Stuff hears a rumble towards the North Shore. John hears a faint rumble towards East Chilliwack. We see a quick rain shower that barely wets the ground. Clearing by tomorrow evening with warmer than modeled temps until the next heatwave.

[Forrest Gump]

Crescent Beach tonight

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[Bonovox]

00Z Euro not really backing down.

[Coquitlam79]

Ah yes, the good old PNE rains. It's pretty cyclical actually.

If I recall correctly there was an especially long streak or several years in the 80s/90s (even some years in the 00s) when we had many cool/rainy days toward the end of August, which is why many who lived or grew up around here around then have associated rain with the PNE. By contrast, most late August periods during the years in the 60s/70s and in the 2010s were mostly warm and dry.

Big exceptions were the wet 2nd half of August's in 2004, 2008, 2010 and 2015 although in the case of 2010 and 2015 there were a couple of heavy rain events that lasted only a day or 2 but skewed the numbers. This late August is looking like 2016 and 2017. I remember I was in Oregon during the late August heatwave of 2016, they had record breaking temperatures on the coast. It's not too often I go swimming on the Oregon coast without a wetsuit but I did that year!

[Coquitlam79]

Pretty good thunderstorm outbreak in the Willamette Valley right now. Been following the reports on the American forum. It’s working its way north, so hopefully it makes it here.

That's a long way to come. We need the low to get close enough as it moves north tomorrow and in the right spot for the instability because the moist southerly flow is there, we just need the instability. It was 2012 or 2013 when we had those severe thunderstorms coming up from south of the border. There must have been alot of divergence aloft in the right places because it was popping up like crazy just South of the border and the storms were maintaining their strength heading North.

[VanCitySouth]

Keep in mind that this is the best case scenario for some.

Okay this is true, some here do enjoy the heat. It's not quite as unanimous as snow in the winter.

I can't say I mind heat during the day, but the 20+ nights are dreadful. I mind heat when it's bed time. If we had something like 40/12 I'd actually be okay but I have no idea what climate would have that type of day.

[Typeing3]

Okay this is true, some here do enjoy the heat. It's not quite as unanimous as snow in the winter.

I can't say I mind heat during the day, but the 20+ nights are dreadful. I mind heat when it's bed time. If we had something like 40/12 I'd actually be okay but I have no idea what climate would have that type of day.

Some examples:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonora,_C ... ia#Climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns,_Oregon#Climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quincy,_C ... nd_climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chico,_California#Climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reno,_Nevada#Climate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placervil ... ia#Climate

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

[Hawk]

Your cabin is between Princeton and Merritt, no? Same region so I'd guess temps there year-round are fairly comparable with Mazama.

Climate is much colder than here in the winter and much warmer in the summer. With precip almost completely concentrated between Oct and Apr, that'd be the perfect climate imo. Something close to this, perhaps: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stehekin,_Washington

Yes sir. If you drive the 5a and honk your horn 9 times very loudly at 4am, i "may" hear you

[Hawk]

Your cabin is between Princeton and Merritt, no? Same region so I'd guess temps there year-round are fairly comparable with Mazama.

Climate is much colder than here in the winter and much warmer in the summer. With precip almost completely concentrated between Oct and Apr, that'd be the perfect climate imo. Something close to this, perhaps: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stehekin,_Washington

Yesssss. I would say most of the precip falls Oct-April in cabin country tbh..maybe more like Oct-Mar..but close enough.

But climate is much colder than Stehekin or whatever..more like Mazama for temps. Also, not sure of elevation of those places...but cabin country is ~3000 feet and tight Mountainous valley...steep both sides. Seems to hold the cold air in place much longer. Sometimes weird weather there for sure. Like when Warm front pushes Freezing level to say 1200-1400m in winter and the mtn tops get mixed precip or rain, yet still snowing or zr in the valley, until the cold front and switch back to snow

[wetcoast91]

Most action went offshore.

Lucky fish.