October 2020 Forecasts and Discussions

[Typeing3]

We know we have a highly amplified ridge out west. The models are probably overdoing the depth of the trough digging SW towards OR by late next week. I suspect that low will be a wild card but the ingredients are there for 400m-600m snow levels with moisture in play anywhere north of that low.

The 12z GEM solution seems like a realistic bet at this point with the low passing through the central island and over the lower mainland.

[Monty]

Looks like 850mb temps bottom out at -6.4C on the operational GFS and -5.8C on the ensembles by Saturday.

Not too shabby.

[Typeing3]

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status ... 3760062464
https://twitter.com/50ShadesofVan/statu ... 4811754498

[Typeing3]

18z GFS ensembles.

[wetcoast91]

Easily 10cm for the Fraser Valley.










Good ol Jan 2020.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Models continuing to trend cold. Many on Am. forum have decided it’s basically a lock. Epic meltdown coming if the models don’t verify.

I have to admit, the amusement of watching the meltdowns happen there takes most of the sting out of a rug pull. Sort of functions as a consolation prize.

[Mattman]

Easily 10cm for the Fraser Valley.



Nitro, did you print that off this January and have it framed?






Good ol Jan 2020.

[Monty]

Easily 10cm for the Fraser Valley.










Good ol Jan 2020.

And people say long range models aren’t worth looking at. That was a 270hr forecast and in reality it snowed 12cm at Shawnigan Lake on the 15th. Pretty good!

Edit. Also snowed 37cm on the 14th. That was fun!

[VanCitySouth]

And people say long range models aren’t worth looking at. That was a 270hr forecast and in reality it snowed 12cm at Shawnigan Lake on the 15th. Pretty good!

Edit. Also snowed 37cm on the 14th. That was fun!

Here in the city we got about 15-20 cm in the 3 hours before the morning drive. I know it was even more in some of the suburbs. It was really fun to watch fall. Not so much to drive to work in though, because they couldn't get the ploughs out in time.

[wetcoast91]

[Typeing3]

Here in the city we got about 15-20 cm in the 3 hours before the morning drive. I know it was even more in some of the suburbs. It was really fun to watch fall. Not so much to drive to work in though, because they couldn't get the ploughs out in time.

I think it was early on a Wednesday morning?

Most of it fell with temps hovering around -10c which made it extra special. Last time we had a regionwide snowfall with those kind of temps was back in 2012.

[Monty]

Frontogenesis!

38C4402F-ABFD-4A24-B6A0-E45FC8B75F37.jpeg

[PortKells]

Nito

[Catnip]

Good thing Nito is bringing the tomatoes inside.

5A92A507-61F7-423B-99E9-D0E26C89BCCC.png

[wetcoast91]

00z GFS running. Looks like the 12z GEM already...

Look for a northward track for Fridays system.

Edit: Nevermind...too much suppression. No rain with that system.